Fantasy Baseball Bible Advice Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Bible Releases Book 8! Late Season Advice

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:05:00 +0000

The Fantasy Baseball Bible is proud to announce the release of Book 8 - Gearing Up For The Dog Days. This latest of the the 10 book bible features handling the most intense months of the season and dealing with issues like the trade deadline, September call-ups, making a playoff, and much more.

Check it out at The Fantasy Baseball Bible

Book 8 - Gearing Up For The Dog Days

HEAD-TO-HEAD Value of Closers For Your Team

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 09:18:00 +0000

OK, so I'm sure you all know by now that I am a proponent of closers. I think they hold a special value to any fantasy team. In a H2H league format they are priceless. In the FBSEL that I'm playing its your typical 5x5 Roto H2H format, which saves is of course one of the categories. I drafted 3 closers because my strategy was to shorten the contest to winning 5 out of 9 to win the week, while my opponent has to win 6 out of 9. Better than that having 3 or 4 closers also allows you to focus your attention away from saves and keep you focus on the categories you still need to win. That can be an advantage if your opponent is trying to muster up saves to compete with you.

Another advantage of having several strong closers is their ability to help your strikeouts, get occasional wins, and keep your ERA and WHIP lower in most cases. Again, this relaxes your need for several dominant starters allowing you to focus more picks and energy on offense. Many closers average 1+ strikeouts per appearance so you are likely to gets extra strikeouts along with some of your setup guys.

The final advantage is what that win does for your team week in and week out. In the FBSEL, after 11 weeks I am 8-0-3. I have never been beat in that category. Those 8 wins out of my 70 are 11% of my total wins and attribute nothing to losses. My lead right now in my division is only 12 games, I've picked up 9.5 of those 12 in the 11 weeks with just saves. Let's say I finish the season 16-2-5 in saves. Wow, that could be the difference of me making the playoffs or not.

What's even better is I told you they can have a positive impact on a pitching staff right? Well, my pitching staff as a whole in 11 weeks has a dominant 38-13-4 record in the expert league. Whether the stats will back up that I'm doing that well because of closers is not known, but it allows me to not have to invest so much time and effort into improving my pitching when I'm clearly dominating.

So I grab offense in free agency and trades. How has my offense responded? 33-17-5. Again, one of the best and certainly very good.

My overall record in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is 71-30-9, which is the best record in the league. Now I'm not saying it all has to do with Valverde, Wood, Fuentes, and a small cast of setup men. What I'm saying is that is where your team can develop its strength, keep for getting wiped out in a week, and give you a head start nearly every week.

The True Guru

KFFL: Fantasy Baseball: Streaming pitchers

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Fri, 23 May 2008 10:29:00 +0000

I found this great article on pitcher streaming from KFFL written by Michael Egnak and edited by Nicholas Minnix.

One of the great things about fantasy baseball is the endless number of strategies owners can attempt in an effort to win year after year. One such strategy is streaming starting pitchers, where an owner constantly hits the waiver wire to pick up the best pitcher, or pitchers, starting in an upcoming timeframe. While this practice can be effective, it can also prove to be disastrous in the long run depending on a league's format and settings. Fantasy baseball players, particularly those looking for an edge, want to know how and when to use this approach.
There are two things fantasy owners should know first, though: 1) Streaming is a plan that is best concocted before the draft, and 2) Streaming may not win fantasy owners a ton of friends, especially in head-to-head leagues.

If a one plans to stream pitchers, one ideally would draft a team loaded with stud closers and stud hitters. This allows one to employ the strategy to its utmost potential.
With a team like that, though, it's easy to make enemies. Many fantasy owners view this practice as unethical because the streamer is taking advantage of the rules (or lack thereof) and is not "playing fairly." They often don't want to devote the time it takes to stream. The ethics of streaming are for another place and time; it's up to the league to decide whether streaming is allowed, and the fairest way to do that is to enact rules that discourage it.

Rotisserie leagues

In roto leagues, owners should only consider using streaming pitchers if there is no maximum innings limit for your league's settings. With no innings limit, a team can throw pitcher after pitcher into the lineup to build up strikeouts and wins. This can help a fantasy team reach the top in those two particular categories.

However, this style of play does have risks associated with it. The pitchers that tend to be used in this strategy are usually on the waiver wire for a reason, whether it is because of high WHIPs and ERAs or because they are frustratingly inconsistent from start to start. As a result, using these pitchers can wreak havoc on your fantasy team's WHIP and ERA over the course of the season; that, of course, can potentially cause a team to finish in the lower half in both categories. With this in mind, owners have to consider what the better option is. Streaming pitchers can essentially balance itself out for a team, with the advantage of high strikeouts and wins being negated by a poor WHIP and ERA. The depth of the league along with the quality of the pitchers available on the wire play a big role in whether streaming is beneficial.

For rotisserie leagues that have an innings limit, streaming pitchers really should be reconsidered. While the team streaming pitchers may be leading in strikeouts and wins now, they could find themselves back in the middle of the pack or worse once August rolls around. Strikeout rate is the biggest factor in winning the strikeouts category in fantasy baseball leagues with innings limits. If an owner is a streaming a player with a low strikeout rate, the owner is merely taking innings away from another pitcher with a better one.

In order to stream pitchers most effectively in rotisserie leagues with an innings limit, owners need to be more selective with the starters they throw into the lineup. One way to maximize strikeouts and win potential is to stick with pitchers who have only the most favorable matchups. This can also help a team maintain a respectable WHIP and ERA at the same time. Teams with poor offenses (the San Francisco Giants, for example), especially those that strike out a lot (i.e., the San Diego Padres), make for great streaming matchups. Keep your eye on team stats to determine the best matchups going.

Being quick on the waiver wire for prospects with great potential also can be helpful. However, there is inherent risk with inexperienced pitchers, so make sure you do your research on them.

Head-to-head leagues

In head-to-head leagues, the streaming strategy can be used much more successfully. There is usually no innings limit in head-to-head formats, so teams can go for as many starts possible in any given week. Fantasy owners can load up on hurlers with two starts for the upcoming week or pick up the best available starters every day; then, they can try to dominate strikeouts and wins. With the streaming team gaining an immediate advantage in two pitching categories, it just needs to take a few hitting categories to steal a cheap win most weeks.

The best part is that there's a chance for the team using streaming pitchers to take ERA and WHIP as well. The team with what might be a more solid pitching staff may be forced to use its better pitchers regardless of whom they face or where they pitch in order to compete. Meanwhile, the team streaming pitchers can pick and choose from those with better matchups. The chance of winning ERA and WHIP is much greater in shallow leagues, though, because as the player pool becomes emptier, the quality goes down considerably.

The problem with using this approach in head-to-head leagues is that the more consistent pitchers are already owned, so the pitchers left on the waiver wire are usually pitchers with poor WHIPs and ERAs. It also won't help that when streaming pitchers in this format, there's a chance that the better starters that are thrown back will get picked up by someone else. With this in mind, the trick to using this tactic in head-to-head formats is to use as few roster spots as possible - one or two, ideally - to stream pitchers. Keeping the more consistent starters allows for some stability, and streaming only the better pitchers with the best matchups should give boosts in strikeouts and wins.

Summary

Now that the advantages and disadvantages of streaming pitchers have been noted, it's time to decide if this is the strategy for you. Obviously if you're the type of fantasy owner who likes stability on your team, this approach won't sit well for you; it might not sit well with your fellow owners, either. Streaming pitchers means you have to be quick on the waiver wire on a daily basis. It not only means that fantasy player has to be able to recognize who is currently on a hot streak but also who has favorable matchups.

For those who are confident in their ability to make the right calls week after week, this strategy could prove fruitful. It allows owners to focus on grabbing the best, most consistent hitters in an effort to dominate the offensive categories. Then they can use streaming in an attempt to finish in the upper half, at least, in most of the pitching categories, or to win a majority of head-to-head categories each week. If successful, it could mean a high finish in the standings come September.

Pitcher Streaming; When and How To Do It

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Thu, 22 May 2008 21:54:00 +0000

I've been asked a ton about pitcher streaming and even in my expert league over at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/ EXPERTS are streaming.

I've always maintained that there is nothing wrong with streaming. My only fix on it is you should only do it when you need to and not because you can. PS (Pitcher Streaming) does take away from the competitive nature of the game, and reduces the competition down to whoever can pick up and throw more pitchers.

Here's when you should stream. Its best to stream in H2H formats where you need to win a few categories. If you are losing or tied consider using PS. Make sure that you have no chance to win the categories that PS can hurt and that you have a chance to win the categories PS will help. PS will always help strikeouts, wins, and innings.

Its best to stream in a H2H Roto League where there is only 4 categories for starting pitchers.

My suggestion is if you need to do it, don't worry about wins. Whether or not if the pitcher is good he may not win, so why bother. Get pitchers who can strikeout. Better yet, check the pitchers who are probables that week and look at the teams they are facing. Then goto this link at MLB.com and check out which teams strikeout the most. For example, the Florida Marlins lead the league in strikeouts with 368 and second place goes to the Padres with 363. Look for starters facing teams that strikeout allot and if you are lucky a good strikeout pitcher facing a strikeout team and you are in.

There are no guarantees in PS, but we will all have to do it at some point and if you make the right pick ups it will pay off. If you don't, the damage will be done.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/

The Strategists Vs. The House Rules; Which Expert Is For You?

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Sun, 11 May 2008 03:58:00 +0000

Ok, I think I finally figured out what this melee is all about. Forget the differences on closers or hitters between industry experts. It is really much deeper than that. What I have figured out is something we all already knew, that each "Expert" has their own philosophy. I took this one step further and examined the several different philosophies and broke it down into to groups; The Strategists and The House Rules. Its really that simple and I will explain.
If anyone doesn't know, the term "house rules" is famous from Las Vegas and describes the gambling rules and philosophies for playing in the casinos, hence the house rules of blackjack. They always tell you double down on 11, never hit on 17 or above, if the dealer has a bust hand, its safest to for you to "stay". Those are rules we all take to the Blackjack table and play with. The same can be said for Fantasy Baseball. Now, the "House Rules Experts" (HRE) are certainly in the majority at this time and their philosophies on winning all center around playing by the fantasy baseball house rules. If you listen to these HRE's on the radio or read their blogs you will tend to notice similarities on the way they approach fantasy advice. Here are a few examples;
1. They always give advice from the point of view of a 5x5 rotisserie league.
2. They will always have ironclad rules such as no closers early, hitters are a must, etc...
3. They tend to update their rules at the beginning of the season like get power hitting outfielders in 2008, they are scarce.
Normally House Rules are simple to follow and rigid in their construction. If you follow them and you have lady luck on your side (just like Vegas) then you can certainly win your leagues. The problem with house rules are they cannot conform quickly enough to changes throughout the season and certainly do not apply to all league types. They can't be applied to Rotohog.com, H2H, or even points leagues. So house rules really only apply to the most common of league types the 5x5 rotisserie, but still that leaves out allot of owners. Another problem with house rules is they are the same year to year with minor modifications. The whole closer rule has been in place for years and certainly needs to change with the times such as the closer role has changed. However, it hasn't. We will get more into this fascinating philosophy later in this article.
Then there are the up and coming strategists, which I consider myself one. Strategists have been around since the beginning of time. If you want to spot a "Strategist Expert" look for the experts who plays and strategizes the game day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month. There is only one ironclad rule for a strategist, "There are no rules". A strategist will play his team based on his own personal philosophies of winning and in most cases will not bend.
Just because the common though in fantasy baseball is outfield power is scarce doesn't mean you should draft around that theory. A strategist will develop their own theory and draft around it as such. Now there are draw backs for strategists. They will tend to over think situations, trades, and players to start. Also, if their strategy is wrong from the get-go it will be hard to change strategy midway and still win your league. Still, it's the philosophy of trusting your instinct that guides the strategist.
So after reading all that you are asking me, "True GURU, which is better? Which philosophy should I listen too for great advice?
Obviously since I'm a "Strategist Expert" (SE) myself I will tell you that that is the way to go. I feel there is a revolution in the air and the new breed of expert coming out like myself, Patrick DiCaprio and others consider the strategy of the game, and this is causing a stir in the industry especially amongst the old-school experts. In my opinion, they should be scared because the advice they are giving out just simply doesn't apply anymore to all facets of the game. I'll say this, if you are new to the game of fantasy baseball, otherwise a novice, its great to learn the house rules and from HREs. Once you become more advanced, you have to move on and take yourself to the next level of developing your own winnings strategies that apply to your league. Here is an example. I'm in 6 leagues right now. Here are the league types:
16x16 Roto (this league stinks)
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head (expert league)
Total Points League
Total Points Head-to-Head
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head
Rotohog.com League
Not one of those leagues are a standard 5x5 rotisserie league, so the house rules just simple don't apply by default to any of them. For example in the points league closers are very valuable, so its best to have 5, and have good ones with a total innings maximum. So the argument over closers is in favor of the strategist. We can do that all day, but you get the point.
"House Rules Experts" play it safe. Think about it. If everyone says take Jose Reyes #2 overall, and they are right, then they all pat themselves on the back. If they are wrong they will all say, "well we all got it wrong." However, I disagreed with that philosophy and saw beyond the hype and felt Hanley Ramirez was a far superior shortstop and in the expert league took him 3rd overall directly after Jose Reyes. Who won that battle so far?
Then there was the talk of getting closers late in the draft or even free agency. I remember when I was discussing this during an expert draft it was said that you shouldn't take a closer early when you can get "Todd Jones or Joe Borowski much later in the draft."
I wonder how that "house rules" advice is holding up?

Basically comparing the two philosophies is like comparing the Yankees and Red Sox since the year 2001. Both have different ideas of building a championship team. The Red Sox used sabermetrics, team chemistry, an infusion of youth, and a few high priced veterans to get two rings. The Strategist Expert is the same. We believe you have to do lots of little things to win the championship and just drafting or picking up free agents is enough.

The Yankees philosophy was born to lose. They went out and signed huge contracts with every high-priced veteran they could find like Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez, and more. They didn't consider team chemistry or sabermetrics. They played by the old-school house rules, which they invented as far back as signing Reggie Jackson. Those rules are to have the better team by having the better players. As you can see, they've stunk ever since for a 200+ million dollar payroll.

So maybe some HRE's don't get it. They don't understand that times have changed and taking fancy hitters like Travis Hafner in the 2nd round in 2007 maybe wasn't a good move. They haven;t yet figured out that by simple roster manipulation you can dominate a league or by finding gems in free agency make up for taking a solid closer early. If I ended up with Joe Borowski, Kerry Wood, and Todd Jones after my draft a HRE would tell me I did great.

Mmm...

Of course the HRE would point out Soria, Sherrill, and Lyons and say you could have gotten those guys. Sure House Rules Expert, but I could have the others and frankly having a Mariano Rivera or Joe Nathan is alright in my book cause I know at year end they'll have a job.

Of course offense will suffer unless you get late round pickups on offense like Kevin Youkilis, Josh Willingham, Edwin Encarnacion , or Nate McClouth. Heck even Xavier Nady is looking good.

So when you decide on a philosophy for playing the game avoid the house rules only if you want to win and become a self-sufficient strategist.

There's No Place Like Home

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Sun, 04 May 2008 08:14:00 +0000

There's No Place Like Home - Article found on ESPN. We wanted to share it with our readers.

By AJ Mass of ESPN

If you can't find what you're looking for in your own backyard, perhaps you'll never be able to find it all. While most players will tell you they prefer sleeping in their own bed at night, most of the time they're still able to produce away from the friendly confines of their home ballpark. However, while some players' home numbers glow like a beautiful Technicolor picture, their road numbers come through in dreary black and white. As a fantasy owner, you can hope your fortitude will lead you to do the right thing (bench a player) when you see a twister on the distant horizon, but it takes a lot of nerve to actually pull that trigger, especially when your heart might be telling you something different. Unless you want to end up in bed with a cold compress on your head, you should pick up the warning signs these guys are throwing your way:

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs (Home batting average: .407; road batting average: .227). Fukudome has "blown in" from Kagoshima, Japan and seems to have found a home inside the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Away from Wrigley, however, that's a horse of a different color.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates (Home runs at home: 5; home runs on the road: 1). What's interesting here is the Pirates have only 11 homers at home as a team, and they've actually hit more of them on the "yellow-brick" road.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (RBIs at home: 17; RBIs on the road: 4).
Big Papi is more like the Wizard at home; on the road, maybe the scarecrow, flopping around on the ground trying to collect all that lost straw?

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Home stolen bases: 5; road stolen bases: 1).
It's 90 feet between the bases no matter where those bases might happen to reside, but apparently Ichiro's feet simply aren't as fleet if he's not breathing in that fresh "Emerald City" air.
Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Home ERA: 0.89 ERA; Road ERA: 8.10 ERA). At home, Maholm is a good, good witch. On the road, his ERA is the most wicked of them all. Have a little fire, Paul! It's time to step up your game and cut down on those long balls you've been giving up in the opposing team's parks.

Jake Peavy, SP, Padres (Home K/9 rate: 9.29; road K/9 rate: 4.50).
We know Petco gives pitchers "da nerve" to take a few chances with their pitch selection, but should it really have that much of an effect on strikeouts? Hmm, sure seems like it does.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals (Home batting average of balls in play: .183; road BIPA: .288) Sure seems like Bannister knows all too well when he's not in Kansas, er, Kansas City anymore. At the very least, he seems to have the flying monkeys known as luck working against him more when he's on the road.

Troy Percival, RP, Rays (Saves at home: 4; saves on the road: 1):
Okay, so this is more because the Rays win more at home (and also haven't played many on the road yet), but this is also a theme that carries over from last season. The Rays went 29-52 on the road in 2007. If the Rays can't play well enough in their road grays to find the need to call on Troy, then all that rust may well lead to this tin man's demise.

Now that you've been given ample warning of a few players to avoid when the schedule forces them away from the family farm, the choice is yours whether to leave them active. You can be a happy little bluebird and ignore it, but beware of the house falling from the sky and crushing your championship dreams, ruby slippers and all.

The Case For The Definition Of An Expert

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Sat, 03 May 2008 11:16:00 +0000

This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this blog isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's allot of what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with you.
I got a decent hammering on some of my opinions on closers and how the experts reasoned their view. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is and more so trying to define if someone is an expert. After that, I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.

As a fantasy manager myself , I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.

Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closers almost has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.

Hold on, what if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's hard if not impossible to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.

I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.
After talking with my friend and co-host Patrick DiCaprio we came up with what we think an expert might be. We think we've solved this fascinating case on what the definition of an expert. In our discussing, we removed the fact that just because you are an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, you win allot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, but are at the very least fine reasons to support a person's case. What makes us an expert is the people who listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It is our listeners and readers who determine that we are an expert. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.

That is what its all about. So after this blog you will here nothing more about me or anyone else being an expert. I'll leave that up to you.

And by the way, Patrick, RC, an I prefer to be called "gurus" instead of experts if you so offer the courtesy.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.

More on The Closer Wars The True GURU Vs Cincotta & Melnick

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 22:12:00 +0000

So yesterday I went on The Fantasy Baseball Mafia radio show and hammered it out with Tony Cincotta concerning closers. Tony, at least on the show was in favor of the Melnick position of not necessarily drafting closers. The way he presented this position was to ask me,

"When was Jose Valverde drafted last year?"

"Where did Joe Borowski get picked?"

He even went on to ask me about JJ Putz. I could tell as these questions were being fired at me that Tony was passionate about his position on this subject, but he threw his expertise and his argument out the door when he decided to attack my position with that kind of evidence.

Here's the deal in this argument and it's almost silly. The Melnick supporters will claim you can get a closer later in the draft or in free agency so why draft early at all?

Now let me clarify my position to make sure it's understood because it's clear Tony Cincotta did not understand my position at all. I believe that there is nothing wrong with taking 1 or 2 closers in the top 11 rounds. Then follow that up in the next 15-16 rounds of the draft by taking 2 more closers. So I certainly support taking closers later in the draft, but the difference is I strongly support the need to get a closer who is stable and has a closer pedigree like a Papelbon or Rivera.

So back to Tony's questions on Valverde, etc... His questions were fluff because of the only question I needed to retaliated with was, "Where was Ryan Braun drafted last year?"

AND BINGO WAS HIS NAME.

You see if you want to take the argument that you can find diamonds in the rough for closing, that's a good strategy and a wise one. You must then also admit that you can find diamonds in the rough for hitting. Last year just to name a few rough diamonds Mike Lowell, Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips, and Curtis Granderson.

Then factor in this argument. This whole debate concerns a 5x5 rotisserie league right? So in a 5x5 rotisserie league there are 5 hitting and 5 pitching categories, so at least according to the general numbers its EVEN amongst the impact hitters and pitchers can have on your total score.

Add one more factor into he argument before we form a solution. The save category is a special one. It is the only category that a single specific player can score in. Only the closer can score a save making the closer a special player because no other player on your team scores in single category like a closer does.

So now we've all established that there are closers and hitters out there late in the draft or in free agency. We also established that in the 5x5 league pitchers are just as important as hitters and that closers carry special value with the saves category.

Then what is the issue here? How can you not look at that and say, "Maybe taking reliable proven closers early isn't so bad." But wait there is more. Let's assume you decide to wait, and as we all know when you get into the later rounds, the draft pick choices get slim. All of a sudden starting pitchers and closers seem to jump out at managers looking for a quick pck before their 60 seconds is up and they start vanishing. So if you though you would pick up 3-4 closers in the last 10 rounds think again, you'll be lucky to get 1.

Then consider free agency, will a big name closer develop? Most likely. Will you get said closer in free agency with your high noon draw in free agency, maybe.

So I guess what the Melnick supporters are saying is, "Let's gamble with our team and hope that not only does a dominating closer emerge, but we get him". Let's gamble by ignoring closers and hoping we can right that ship in free agency. LOL.

Sounds like experts to me! Almost like pitch and ditch, does an expert really do that constantly?

Alright, as most of you know I've been running an expert league this season. It is comprised of 12 experts from the industry including Lenny Melnick's partner Paul Greco. Let's examine an expert league and see how the experts have played the closer war.

Statistical evidence from the expert draft:

Number of expert who draft closers in the first 11 rounds: 12 ( 7 of them in the first 9 rounds)

Number of closers drafted in the first 11 rounds: 19

In this league so far the hottest commodity people are looking for in trades in April are CLOSERS. Guess which player is being traded the least and coveted by each team, closers.

So there you have it. the Melnick point of view can work in a perfect world, but in a league of experts where you won't always be the fastest in free agency or the smartest later in the draft its a rookie move and bad advice at best. Maybe Lenny Melnick plays in leagues where he is the far superior manager and can pull off moves like that. None ofthe leagues I play in would let me dominate in that way.

I firmly believe that the foundation of your team is your bullpen and it provides much more than saves. It shortens the big season-long roto match or even the H2H variety by giving you a huge advantage in saves. Great closers save your WHIP and ERA by throwing 10-20 inning's per week (depending on the size of your bullpen). They also add valuable strikeouts. Most closers get 1-2 per outing. Trust me, getting 10-15 strikeouts per week helps a ton in that category.

So take care of your closers because they are taking care of you.

The Closer Wars Heat Up: "Us Vs Them"

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 22:11:00 +0000

OK, The first salvos in this battle were fired much earlier in spring training. Now the war rages into the season over the value of a closer in a 5x5 Rotisserie League or any league type for that matter!

Is this mindless over exaggeration of one man's view on this controversy or is it a serious conflict needing to be resolved?

Well, after the first month of the season some of the supporters who comprise "Them" came out on Melnick & Greco's radio show last Wednesday (4/23/08). Lenny Melnick and his partner in crime Paul Greco agreed that not only should you not draft closers in the early rounds 1-6, but you should consider not drafting closers at all? They cited on their show that getting Todd Jones or Joe Borowski in the later rounds and getting good offense in the earlier rounds rather then closers was the better strategy. Even getting a closer like Sherill in free agency is better.

I got two questions for them

1. What if someone else grabs these "raindrop closers" from free agency before you do?

2. Is there no love for offense beyond round 7???

Well The True GURU (That's me) thinks they are spot on WRONG. This couldn't be worse advice and this type of strategy is a death blow to any fantasy team in a rotisserie 5x5 league.

No one could have predicted how closers would have performed to this point before the season started. IF and I say "IF" you were smart and drafted Franky Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Huston Street, or Bobby Jenks as opposed to waiting a little longer and getting Manny Corpas or Jose Valverde would you be better off? Or even waiting longer to get Hoffman, Borowski, or Jones?

Right now, I'd be doing great drafting closers in the early rounds. Being those closers mentioned above (not Corpas or Valverde) average nearly 8 saves each and .5 blown saves. Why has it got stuck in some experts heads and now the average fantasy baseball managers head that they should value offense over pitching and by a large margin in roto 5x5 leagues? The joke in itself is they both account for 5 categories so they should be even at the very least!

In my Humboldt, Nevada opinion, pitching carries just as much power as offense, and RPs or closers are the most important players on your team after 2-3 of your stud offensive players and/or STARTING ACES.

There is ONLY one category SAVES that can be scored by ONLY one type of player the CLOSER. Only relief pitchers can get saves, not Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, or Albert Pujols, just closers a.k.a RPs.

So, having a strong bullpen of the "Us" compared to the later drafted bullpen of the "Them" on the average should score big for the "Us" and will shorten the weekly or yearly match up to 9 categories and put your opponent in the hole to start 0-1. The significant here is in a head-to-head league where your opponent has to take 6 of 9 categories to win the week, while you only have to win 5 of 9. Numerically and statistically that is in your favor, and even in a standard roto league, if you can get a 10 score in saves, that's a huge advantage over the rest of the league.

Also, closers will throw 68-80 innings per year and will impact the other four pitching categories especially when the average starter goes about 175 innings. Maybe?

What about leagues with inning limits? I'd rather have the scoring power of 80 Closer inning's x 5 Closers then to have the scoring power of 5 SP's or mid-level offensive players x 5. Think about it in a league where points per inning mean the difference between winning and losing a championship.

So they will impact the other 4 categories, not wins as much, but without a doubt you are looking at per Closer: 50-80 strikeouts, 1.00-2.40 ERA, and a WHIP around .80-1.12. Yes, that will help quite a bit if you consider the big picture where up to 33% of your innings will come from your bullpen.

Now look at "Them". Say they draft those Closers later who maybe won't get as many saves, who will get cranked often like Jones, Borowski , Corpas, and find someone with less strikeouts. Well, you might have to assume they are at a disadvantage in this area of the team.

Wait a minute, they do have their reasons. "Them" claims getting better offense for the 2 picks you used in rounds 3-6 to get closers is a far superior strategy.

Wow, what about some of the offensive players and starting pitchers available after round 6 or even 7? Mmm lets open the imagination bubble and see who we can visualize...

Josh Willingham is looking good for a 17th round pick, Ellsbury is great for an 11th round pick. How about Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Chris Young, 30 home runs from Brad Hawpe, James Loney, Shane Victorino, Jason Bay, Mike Lowell, Josh Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, Edgar Renteria, Pat Burrell, Willy Taveras, Aaron Hill, Johnny Damon, Kosuke Fukudome , Placido Polanco, Evan Longoria, Orlando Hudson , Joey, Votto, bla bla bla.....

Finally, all the supporters of "Them" will argue "look how good Sherill, Lyon, Soria, B. Wilson, etc... are doing."

Yes, look at how they are doing. Say to yourself wow and pat yourself on the back. After you complete the celebration dance ponder this; Assume for a second that by waiting later in the draft to get closers that you may in fact not get the closers you wanted because other people grabbed them first? That happened to me in the expert league and I ended up with Corpas, Valverde, and Wood. So assume you may not get more then one of the above closers. Then ask yourself this question; Would you want to count on Brandon Lyon or Brain Wilson in September with the championship on the line? Who even knew they'd still be a closer let alone dependableat that time of the year!! Or would you rather have Rivera or KROD knowing you are in ALLSTATE (in good hands).

So the wrap up is, you can be with "Us" sitting pretty dominating saves and probably doing well in pitching and getting offensive stars later in the draft or you can be with "Them" and lose your league.

Guys, the bottomline is fantasy baseball and drafting is a thinking man's game. If you can't say to yourself that a top-notch closer carries the same value as a late 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th round draft pick, well maybe you should reconsider your strategy in order to win. The best experts get the players they have to have in the first 10 rounds of the draft, and then find the diamonds in the last 15 rounds. If the experts who support "Them" expect you to depend on their own advice on drafting closers, then they should know when to take closers over offense in the draft and what valuable offensive stars await them in the later rounds to make up for the offense lost to getting good closers . Only if they are truly "Experts" that is.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino

The True GURU releases his expert draft analysis and strategy

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 22:07:00 +0000

I finally finished my analysis of my 2008 expert draft for my team. Check out the link below. It will examine all 26 picks I made and explain why I made them at the time I did. Its a great piece to study if you want to understand how an expert drafts.

2008 Expert Draft Analysis And Strategy

First 7 Books completed, 3 more before the end of the season!

noreply@blogger.com (The True GURU) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:56:00 +0000

The first seven books of The Fantasy Baseball Bible have been released. Look in early July for Books 8 and 9, and learn how to wrap up your championship season starting with the dog days of Summer! Also watch for Book 10 around March 30th, as we begin formulating our greatest strategies into one book The Revelations of Fantasy Baseball Strategies. Its a MUST READ! If you need an answer or need help is a spot you are not sure what to do, email us at thetrueguru@fantasybaseballsearch.com for help!