1.        Book 7 – Injuries and Prospects  

1)       Some of the toughest decisions that are made from the beginning to the end are how to handle injuries and prospects.  We all deal with injuries throughout the season and most of us pride ourselves on our prospects. 

2)        For injuries, several questions creep up.  Should I cut this guy?  How long should I hold onto him?  Is this guy worth picking up because he’s injured and so on?  In this book we will cover how to approach handling injury situations and how not to panic when your team is getting eaten alive by the injury bug.

3)        Prospects are a different story and they can go by different names.  Some of us call them sleepers, minor leaguers, even deep sleepers.  The questions asked all season concerning these players are; should I start him now?  How long should you wait on a prospect?  Is this prospect worth taking up a roster spot?  How will this prospect impact my team in September?  There are many other questions associated with prospects that we will discuss in this book. 

4)        Over the next several chapters we will discuss how to manage injuries your team will sustain through the season and how to actually benefit from them.  We will also cover strategies for replacing injured players and discuss the bench setup to best handle injuries.

5)        We will then cover prospects.  We will show you tips and ideas on how to find them, research them and when to best start them.  You will learn everything you need to know about prospects and fully understand their impact on your team. Let me make it clear the definition of a prospect.  It’s not always a minor league player coming to the majors during the season.  A prospect is any player that has not started for a full major league season that is under the age of 28.  Rarely do you bump into a prospect above 28. 

 

2.        Getting Hit With The Injury Bug

6)        No team can avoid the injury bug and at some point in the season you will have to deal with it.  Not every injury is tragic, nor are they all the same.  You have to learn which injuries will impact your team the most, and which injuries are simply the type that time will heal.  You also need to understand how to setup your bench so that when an injury comes down you are prepared.

7)        Throughout this book we will tell you to have prospects on your bench.  Maybe you have room for 8-10 players on your bench.  The key for a solid bench is to cover as many positions as possible with the amount of roster spots you have on your bench.  For instance, get the players that play multiple positions.  Sometimes there are very good players out there like Ryan Freel for this slot.  Finding players that play 2B/1B or 2B/SS/OF are great for your team especially when you need to start someone and you have no one else.  Other than that, make sure you have 2-3 starting pitchers and 1 closer on your bench.  It’s a must that your team be comprised of 2-3 prospects.  Hopefully one of them starts from the beginning. 

8)        The first injury we will discuss is the simple version of the 15-Day DL. These injuries occur all the time.  They can be a sore hamstring, a contusion, family issues, or just a tired arm.   In most cases there isn’t a need to react to a 15-Day DL trip.  The only time you should worry is when the team is having several doctors’ check out the problem.  Most teams will initially place a player on the 15-day DL, and later move him to the 60-Day DL or worst end the player’s season.  They do this because at the time they are not sure of the extent of the injury. 

9)        When discussion first arises about a player’s injury is the time you need to act.  Again, research the injury thoroughly.  The best places to find out about the injury are the local papers for the player’s team.  For instance if you wanted to get the latest details on a Boston Red Sox player visit the sports sections of The Boston Globe or Boston Herald online and find out the most updated information on the player.  You can also read the expert blogs who will do the work for you.  If the injury is minor similar to the ones we mentioned above, it’s best to limit your reaction.  If you have a DL roster spot in your league, use it and grab another player from free agency.  If you don’t, just bench him and use your bench until the player is back.  There is no need to over react for an insignificant injury.

10)    Now, if the injury appears to be more serious then a different approach is needed.  There are several options for you as manager to consider, especially if the injuries involves the players legs, wrist, oblique, or the pitchers arm.  This is where early research can payoff.  Read as much as you can on the injury.  For example if the pitcher says he heard a “pop” when the injury occurred that is very bad.  When the injury occurs on a critical body part you have to immediately consider a long term replacement. 

11)    This could mean attempting to make a quick trade, free agency, or playing a prospect/sleeper.   If you discover the information concerning the injury before the news really gets out you could try a swift trade.  Now, you are making this decision based on preliminary injury data that could end up being wrong, so make the decision carefully and with your best judgment.  Read the coming chapter on trading injured players for more.

12)    The final advice we will give on injured players is don’t panic.  That is a theme in these books because we all do it.  Never just cut the guy unless it’s a must.  I’m not talking about the out-for-season players; I’m talking about the other injury types.  If the player is a star or he’s worth the roster spot you have to keep him.  When they come back they might be cold, but they will be fresh and it could be like making a blockbuster trade right before the playoffs.    

3.        Prospects

13)    Prospects are like gold in fantasy baseball.  Every team should carry some and watch them bloom.  You don’t have to always draft them; you just have to watch out for them. Prospects will come out of no where, but in fact they come from somewhere.  Most good prospects can be found before they hit the majors. 

14)    Your first source for finding top prospects before the season starts is paying attention to spring training.  In spring training, all teams bring up their young players and give them a look.  If a player is playing in spring training then most likely he has a chance to make the team.  Watch for players that excel, but still don’t make the team.  The best way to get an inside scoop on prospects is to read the blogs and local papers during spring training.  Everyone will be talking about these prospects. 

15)    There will still be many prospects that will go unnoticed in spring training that can have an impact by September.  That is why keeping an eye out for them is critical all season long. Also, reading all the prospect reports will give you an excellent volume of information on all the teams’ top prospects.  Keep the best reports handy cause you never know when you’ll need to look up a guy for your roster. 

16)    The big question is which prospects do I keep on my team and when do I get them?  You should always have 1 or 2 prospects on your team at all times.  Every season prospects breakout and become great.  In 2006 was Papelbon, and in 2007 Ryan Braun.  So at the draft you should try and get a couple of prospects for your team.  In 2008 two obvious prospects would be Joba Chamberlain and Jacoby Ellsbury. 

17)    Which prospects should you keep?  The best prospects are always hitters.  Starting pitchers will always go through growing pains and have to learn too much to quick.  If you are checking out a pitching prospect remember two things.  Relief pitchers are far superior to starting pitchers because the pressure on them is much different and much less.  Look at Joba Chamberlain and Jonathan Papelbon.  Also, starting pitchers are normally good for the first few starts and then run into trouble.  John Maine last season had a great first half and fell apart in the second half.

18)    Hitters are where the best prospects are.  It’s much easier to make the leap from the minors to the majors as a hitter.  When you man your roster, try to keep prospects on the offense and go with veteran pitchers.  If there is good available relief prospects certainly consider them if they are closers or will be a closer

19)    Finally, the best time outside of spring training (drafting) to get prospects is in September after teams expand their rosters to 40 players.  All kinds of prospects, especially the ones on bad teams will get the chance to start.  This is also the time you are making a playoff run and the time when you are most likely be dealing with injuries.  In late August start heavily researching prospects for September.

 

4.        Trading Injured Players and Prospects

20)    There is going to be a time when you need to trade a player because he is injured or a prospect that you feel isn’t panning out.  The first case would be trading an injured player, especially before the news has gotten out that his injury is serious.  When this situation arises, find the most desperate team that needs the position of the injured player.   Find a player on his team that could be valuable to your team. 

21)    Make a 2 on 1 offer.  2 on 1 trade offers for some psychological reason always look the best.  3 on 1 are just too much and the other manager will assume you are unloading junk for a star player.  1 on 1 and the other manager may think he’s not getting a good enough deal.  2 on 1 say, the player is worth a little extra and every manager will tend to have a free roster spot for the new guy. If he’s not paying attention or the news just hasn’t gotten out, he may pull the trigger.  You are probably wondering how you’d know if the news isn’t out yet?  The answer is pay attention to your players.  Maybe the player has sat out for 2-3 games resting a bulging disc in his back.  You find this out by researching his news.  Some people will call this deceitful trading, but it’s as fair as any other move. 

22)    Maybe the player comes back strong and has a great end of the season.  Either way, it’s the other manager’s fault for not researching before accepting a great deal.  Just remember when trading an injured player; always make the deal look sweet for the other manager.  You have to move the player and if he’s damaged goods, lower his value.

23)    Note that this will rarely happen, and in most cases you are stuck with the player.  This is the time to decide what value that player now holds for your team.  Having a DL roster spot helps greatly, but most leagues do not carry that option.  Do you decide to cut the player?  Last season I had BJ Ryan (2007).  After he went down it took a little while for the news to get out that he was out for the season and there was even talk of a late season return.  Many people kept him too long. 

24)    Whatever you do, get the backup as soon as possible for closers, and for the other players get a backup for your team. You can always cut the guy later, but now you are hedging your bet incase the injury is as bad as losing the player for the season.  I did grab Accardo (2007) as soon as possible and used him the remainder of the season.

25)    Trading prospects is much more difficult.  Since most prospects were investments in your team and are relatively unknown it’s hard to move them.  You have to hope that the MLB media has already talked them up or at least the fantasy baseball world has.  The only reasons I can think I would ever trade a prospect is if a player just wasn’t panning out or a player has performed well, but has gotten him in a prolonged slump. Both cases will result in a different approach to the trade offer. 

26)    If a prospect hasn’t performed at all you can still trade him based on his apparent or possible future value.  There very well could be another manager out there willing to take a chance on the prospect.  In these cases don’t expect too much for the player, but try to get a fair offer.  Maybe try trading a prospect for a prospect.  Managers are always willing to trade an unproven player.  They normally do it for a proven player, but if the other manager likes your prospect make the deal.

27)    It’s different if your prospect is in a big slump, and you are ready to move him.  In the 2007 John Maine went through a tremendous slump and many managers were trying to trade him like he went out of style.  That was a good move on their part though they lost a ton of trade value waiting so long to move him as he performed poorly.  Still, many managers saw how well Maine performed earlier in the season and were more than willing to take a chance on him and even pay a solid price for the rookie prospect starting pitcher. 

28)    As a manager you should be able to get more in a trade for a proven yet slumping prospect than a prospect that just isn’t panning out. Alex Gordon and Mike Pelfrey come to mind from 2007.  We aren’t suggesting you just give up on certain prospects and trade them.  Make sure the move is the right move to make.  Like we said in the previous book, only trade if you have to or the deal is too good to pass up.  If you can keep a prospect on your roster without hurting you team do it.  Nothing hurts more than cutting or trading a prospect that then blows up! 

5.        The Saving Grace of A Symbiont Relationship
 

29)     The entire point to this book was to point out the troubles of injured players and the advantages of prospects.  The fact is these players are symbiont to one another.  Together they help make your team stronger if you acquire and play them correctly.  Regardless of how good your team is you are going to get some injuries throughout the long season.  You can replace these injured players from free agency, but in many leagues only scraps remain in free agency. 

30)     That is where having prospects can be a saving grace.  Remember that many prospects are merely an investment for your team based on your knowledge and research.  Sometimes these investments payoff, and sometimes you will sell at a loss.  Hopefully you learn from your investment mistakes and get better at finding the true prospects.  If you choose not to invest in prospects your team can certainly still win, but you will lack the spark plugs needed to go the distance for a championship.  I have yet to win a championship or see a championship without prospects.

31)      Most of your prospects will be in the majors and starting by the time you need them.  If you have enough of them you will see that they should be starting, but like a major league team you have more trust in your steady veteran then the prospect.  If and when that veteran gets hurt, you will be relieved because you can start your hot prospect without benching a good veteran player.  Just like the majors, that prospect may never see the bench again.

32)   So it’s true that injuries can help a team by forcing the hand of the manager to start a prospect.  Of course it’s absolutely critical that you have prospects on your roster at all times and that you have good ones.  Always watch out for new prospects coming to the majors.  Many of them are not discovered or talked about in spring training.  Prospects will arrive all year, especially in September with the expanding rosters.  September is also a month where lots of injured players are sitting. 

33)    Understanding how to deal with injured players and prospects are keys to winning a championship. If you have any questions about your draft, email us at thetrueguru@fantasybaseballsearch.com.