1)       The team is now drafted and teams are set.  All the pieces are in place for the beginning of your journey towards a championship.  I can only promise you two things on this journey.  It will be long, and it won’t be easy.

2)       Playing fantasy baseball is much like the real sport in the sense that you must grind it out going through highs and lows.  Knowing when to make moves, and not just making a move because you are desperate.  So many decisions will have to be made once the season starts that the work and thinking done during the draft will pale in comparison.

3)       Let’s focus on the first month of the season.  There are many beliefs about fantasy baseball and how you should start.  Some say it’s like a marathon, pace yourself.  Some say April doesn’t really matter its September that matters.  Others and myself agree you need to come out with guns blazin’.

4)       Taking the top score for the first month is so fundamentally important that it’s often overlooked as a strategy to winning.  This book will cover the post-draft stage of the game and then the first 2 months of the season.  We will highlight how to play your team and what moves you should make.
 

5)       Most of us won’t make a pickup after the draft has ended and before the season has started.  It’s a reasonable move to make if you need too. In most cases there isn’t a reason to make a move at this time, but sometimes you can and they are goldmines. 

6)       First, consider the timing of your draft.  Most decisions made by a major league teams are made late in March, so if your draft was early players that weren’t drafted can become valuable.  For instance, over the past seasons closers have been named late in spring training or on opening day.  Even starting pitchers and position players get decided on as the season is getting under way.  For example Jonathan Papelbon in 2006.  He was only drafted in 11% of the leagues, so he was a free agent after most drafts.  Nobody knew his value till his first save opportunity, but with a little research you could have snatched him and taken a small risk by adding him to your roster.

7)       Allot of managers do find a player they would like to have on their roster post-draft, but they cannot decide who to cut to get the player.  Most managers feel they drafted their team and that should be that. 

8)       As a manager these moves are very tough to make, so you must decide on 1-2 players that you deem are expendable.  Expendable players you can cut on a moments notice.  It’s hard because most of us value are entire roster, but you must have at least one revolving roster spot.  This player can be your deepest sleeper, a third string starting pitcher,  or a middle reliever.  Whoever he is they must be consdiered expendable.

9)       Your deepest sleepers can be cut and reaquired easily.  In most cases other people aren’t thinking like you and they certainly don’t want to cut their deepest sleeper for yours.  Last season after I picked up Ryan Braun I cut him within 2 weeks.  He was slumping and I needed a pitcher.  He went on a boom, and because I already knew and liked him, I got him back just in time.  Jackpot.  So, your sleepers are expendable to a point.  Of course I have to mention like in all team moves another manager can sneak in and grab the player you cut.  We will give you more tips on taking advantage of free agency in the next book.

10)   Starting pitchers are a dime a dozen in free agency.  We are all going to have plenty of starting pitching and 1 or 2 will not be as good as we would like.  If another player comes along, cut the pitcher.  Even if, and I say even if someone grabs your pitcher, there are probably 10 more that were as good, or nearly as good in free agency, so the risk in minimal.

11)   Middle relievers in a league where closers are high point scorers are nearly complete wastes.  In most cases the reason you’d have one is because you didn’t get enough closers in the draft or he’s a back up to your closers.  If he is a starter, cut one of the other types we’ve mentioned, but if he is a backup he can be cut.  Every season several middle releivers pop up as roster quality players, so replacing your ace middle reliever is fairly easy.  Besides needing him at the start of the season isn’t as important as having him at the end when pitchers get hurt or tired.

12)   Now we have established three types of players that can occupy the revolving roster spot incase you need to pick up a free agent.  We will discuss more about picking up free agents and what to look for, but for this book just remember who you should cut if you do have a need to pick up a player in free agency before the season has started.

13)   Finally, for your santity and for strategy, break the baseball season down into smaller windows by the month.  First April, May, June etc…  By breaking the season up into months its much easier for you to focus on a certain strategy.  This should be easy in a head-to-head league where you are already focusing on week-by-week.
 

14)   This sounds easy enough, and most of you think you do, but its harder then you assume.  More often than not, most of us don’t come out fighting like we should.  For fantasy baseball you need a certain mindset for different times of the season.  I firmly believe that you need to unload all your guns in the first and last months. 

15)   Start by front loading your pitchers.  Make sure you don’t try to hold back using innings or limit your starters in anyway.  Even allow good prospects to start.  Allot of pitcher come out of the gate strong, slow down, and then pick up their mid-season form.  So if they start strong you have to maximize your benefit from that.  If you have a revolving spot and you see a great pitching match up in free agency, make the move and score the points.  If you have SP-RP closers or middle relievers on your roster make sure they are in an active slot when you don’t have enough starting pitchers going on a given day. 

16)   A fundamental must in fantasy baseball is keeping up with your roster daily.  It’s what separates men from the boys or fantasy baseball from fantasy football.  Allot of managers truly aren’t ready for the season. Like a ballplayer their timing is off, and they are slow to react with their roster.  Seize that opportunity to grab a lead.  Stay on your roster day and night in April and beyond.

17)   Offense is a bit trickier, but there are still ways to maximize scoring.  For offensive players, watch their performance coming out of spring training. Notice if they are hot.  I know it’s hard to gauge a player’s hot/cold status coming out of spring training because of playing time and competition, but it’s a reliable gauge for whether a player is ready to score or needs more time.  Players as good as Alex Rodriguez even start out of the gate slow and in a slump. 

18)   You have to bench slumping players at the beginning of the season.  Opening day slumps are different then mid-season slumps, or even end of the season slumps.  Opening day slumps simply exist because of lack of time playing competitive ball.  Its natural for hitters to start slow and heat up.  You have to quickly recognize when a player is starting slow and have the guts to bench him.  This is one of the rare and I mean very rare times we would recommend benching a star player.  Think about it, if your star outfielder opens the first week of the season going 5 for 43.  Then your solid and trusty backup goes 16 for 44.  You’ll be upset at yourself for not making the change sooner.  As soon as the star player heats up, put him back in.  You may lose a few hits as he heats up, but the hits you can gain can be the difference between a slow start and a fast one.

19)   No matter which type of league you are in rotisserie, head-to-head, or points, coming out strong should give you the points you need to be at the top of your league.  That is fairly self-evident.

20)   Also, do not consider trading a star player who is starting slow.  Never.  We will cover trading in detail in a future book, but trading should not be on your mind in the first month or two.  Now if other managers want to “crazy trade”, then consider the deal.  Again, more on that in a later in the FB bible. 

21)   Just remember, play all your cards in April.  Not only does it give you a chance to take a big lead, but it allows you to see how your team will perform across all spectrums of scoring.  Also, it messes with the psyche of the opposing managers.  Getting into their heads is half the battle just like GI Joe would say.  It’s critical from a psychological point-of-view to win April, and it’s the same if you come out at the bottom of your league. We will cover the psychology of it all later in this gospel.   

22)   April is over, and now you are in a swing month.  Swing months tend to be downer months that can allow a team to take a lead, grow a lead, or lose a lead. The other swing month is August.  If you made they right decisions and had some good luck you should be leading going into May and that puts all the advantages in your corner.  All the bottom-rung managers are scrambling to get to the top, while you are hopefully already there and relaxing a bit more then them. May is played much differently then April, so be prepared to shift your strategy. 

23)   In May you want to chill on your pitching.  After using as many innings as you could in April, you need to cut back in May.  One of the side-effects of using allot of innings is your PPI (points per inning) amongst your starters will suffer.  In most cases your PPI will be lower than you want it to be because you had to absorb some bad starts.  If you remember from book one, an average PPI would be the amount of points your pitcher can score in one inning for getting outs, and nothing else.  In most leagues you will get 1 point per out recorded, so 3 points per inning would be the average.  .  Obviously you’d like to be in the 5-6 PPI range.  If your PPI is low, we can rebuild it in May without blowing too many innings.

24)   May is also the month where you want to open yourself up to trades if necessary.  You’ve had a month to evaluate players both on your team and on other teams.  Trading is definitely not a skill for the weak at heart.  It’s always a tough decision, but in many cases they will be the decisions that change the complexion of your team and ultimately win you a championship. Again, we will cover trades strategies in more detail the trading gospel, but for this gospel its important to know that this is one of the times where you find deals that fill the holes you have discovered without creating new holes.  It’s a delicate art to say the least. 

25)   There is also free agency to consider.  At this time major league teams are evaluating their first month and making moves of there own.  If you remember in 2007, Ryan Braun was brought in May to help the struggling Brewers.  Seasons will start for many players in May, and this is your chance to pick up some steals.

26)   Let’s assume you are losing going into May (bottom five), what would be the best strategy for you at this point?  After a month you know the positions that are hurting you.  Notice we don’t say players.  This is where positions come into focus.  You are matching up against the other teams in the league, not other players.  The reason the other teams are beating you is because they are outscoring your team at certain positions.  At this point you have to examine the teams that are beating you and find out how they are doing it. 

27)   Now there are few if no quick solutions, but I recommend matching up position by position with each team and note which position each team is beating you at.  Say five teams are ahead of you, and four of them have outscored you at the second base position.  Now you know that you have to improve scoring from second base.  You have several options to choose from to improve that position.  In some cases you might have the best second basemen available and there is nothing you can do about it except be patient.  You can always check free agency for hotter second basemen, or do the most dangerous move of trading for second basemen.  The bottom-line is you have to improve your scoring in order to over take the other teams.  Continue examining all positions and try to improve your team position by position. 

28)   By May you should have all your big-time players swinging a decent bat. If by the end of May they still aren’t producing you will have some big decisions to make, but for now you have to go with what you got, or what you can get in free agency using your revolving roster spots. 

29)   If you are winning its much different, more relaxed, and the actions you should take are summed up above.  Try to improve your team where you feel you can.  Look for new hot free agents.  Do this not only to help your team, but keep those players away from your opponents.  Consider trades, but only trades where you get the far better deal.  No reason to take risks when ahead, right?  Play it safe, but stay aggressive. 

30)   In either case, slow down the innings use, so you can get your innings per day average back to a normal level.  Innings per day is the average of total innings divided by the number of days in the season.  Check what your average is by dividing the amount of innings you have left into the remaining days in the season.  Try to get your average close to the actual league average.  If you are already there, throw some more pitching, but again you are in the lead so watch for bad pitching match ups. 

31)   Psychology is powerful in all walks life and is no different in fantasy baseball.  Managers look at their teams much different whether they are winning or losing.  Lets give you some examples of winning and losing psychologies and see how the different managers treat their team.  We are telling you this because if you are the winning team then you will understand how your opponent is thinking at that time, and you will also know what you shouldn’t do when the chips are down for your team. 

32)    If you are the winning team, say in second place in a tight race with the leader.  Your opponents beneath you in the standing will be scrambling for points.  Security is no longer on the side of a losing team.  They tend to over-analyze situations and make rash decisions like cutting a player that they should never have cut.  Furthermore, they will also consider and in many cases accept “crazy trades” that in allot of cases will hurt their team further.

33)   We’ve discussed panicking already in this bible, and we will cover it again now.  In the heat of competition we can all panic.  What’s most important is we recognize when its about to happen and avoid it.  A losing manager will panic and you can see that when he’s cutting 2 or 3 players at a time, and/or putting up posts in the league offering trades.  Those are obvious forms of panicking. 

34)   If you are on the losing end, never panic.  Take a deep breath and realize it’s only May.  The season is still a long ways from over.  Your great players will eventually hit, and if you are patient new great players always emerge or trade offers become more frequent.  You should always act like you are a winning team and always focus your attention on the team directly above you, not the league leader unless you are in second place.  In time you can catch them all, but for now one fish at a time. 

35)   Seasons are lost at these moments.  The moments where you feel helpless like you’ll never catch the leader.  If you react to the moment you will only compound your problems.  Let the moment react to you.  Look to the teams below you and find a panicking team and pounce on him.  Make trade offers you will get the better end of.  Remember you are thinking clearly he may not be.  I know this sounds bad to do, but when you smell blood, go for the kill.  If you don’t do it, another manager will and he will benefit from whatever transaction he makes with the panicking manager.

36)   Understanding how to start the season strong is a critical factor in winning a championship. If you have any questions about your draft, email us at thetrueguru@fantasybaseballsearch.com.