10 Suggestions To Make Your Fantasy Baseball Season Is Fun

By Todd Farino, Fantasy Baseball Search


I've been playing fantasy baseball since 1990. It has been a blast to play the game that has brought so many people back to baseball. The initial fun of playing fantasy baseball really came when it allowed people to watch the ESPN Sunday night game just for their fantasy players. All of sudden so many games became relevant. More and probably the bulk of fun came from being able to pick and manage your own team and watch your work be successful. The best part of course is winning against your friends. Since you've started playing fantasy baseball, how many times have you called your buddy and chatted about your players, upcoming games, or just baseball in general. More of the enjoyable aspects of fantasy baseball is you not only have the games to watch, but now you have sports news and baseball tonight. The entertainment fantasy baseball brings to your life has a tremendous impact and believe it or not can improve your quality of life. Over the past 6-8 years fantasy baseball has evolved and changed from being a simple rotisserie 5x5 to having all sorts of different league systems from rotisserie to points, to including new stats to head-to-head leagues. It has expanded and with that the enjoyment and fun has expanded. Even drafts have evolved with auction style drafts and keeper leagues have expanded to new types and rules. Everything has been going great for fantasy baseball, but recently over the past couple of years with the advent of fantasy baseball web sites has come fantasy baseball advice. Obviously, we will support managers using advice to help their teams win, but some of the advice takes away the fun and that isn't good.



Over the past several seasons baseball has evolved so fast that allot of the fun has been lost. We aren't talking about most of the fun we mentioned above. We are talking about the most basic loving fun that we all expect from fantasy baseball. The fun that originates the first moment fantasy baseball season starts. The pure kid like joy you expect and if you don't get it you lose everything. We will give you our top 10 ways that you can make sure you will have fun this season and continue to enjoy the game that you've always had fun playing.


1. Stay Away From Sabermetrics - Whoever adapted this statistical method of projecting your players performance for fantasy baseball was insane. Sabermetrics was originally developed as a tool to assist scouting in MLB, but not to replace it. What sabermetrics guys have done in fantasy baseball is removed the scouting portion and just left the numbers, formulas, and statistics. It's a known fact that most sabermetrics guys hardly even watch baseball and base everything on wild formulas and repetitious statistics like batting average and batting average balls in play (???HUH???). I will admit that some basic sabermetric stats like OBP (On Base Percentage), OPS (on base and slugging, Strikeouts Per 9 Innings, WHIP (Walks-Hits Per Inning), and a few other pitching stats are very useful for fantasy baseball. However, sabermetrics guys just turn fantasy baseball into a calculus class and your fantasy baseball homework really is homework! Here are some amazing and crazy formulas and calculations for you to consider courtesy of sabermetrics: line drive rate, batted balls in play, and BsR(Base Runs). Now the true crazy sabermetric measurements used in fantasy baseball and these are freaky; LIPS (Late Inning Pressure Situations, DIPS (defensive Independent Pitching Statistics), and the best one Equivalent Average (EqA). If you think I'm making it up, here is the formula for EqA:






Now I will agree that sabermetrics is an incredible asset for MLB, but for fantasy baseball it sucks the fun out of the game, unless you like equations like the one above. Avoid using most of sabermetrics and stick to the formulas you see in the statistical categories in a players stats and you will have much more fun than a sabermetrics manager. To identify a sabermetrics manager, they probably drink lots of coffee, wear glasses (because of some much reading), and have dark circles under their eyes. They are also probably going bald because they pull their hair out from insanity of doing so many calculations just to decide to pick up Garrett Anderson and most likely they have a MIT degree!

2. Smack Talk Or Post In Your League - In order to truly have fun in your fantasy league, you have to smack talk. Leagues that don't chat and don't have money on the line don't exist for very long. Communication in a league is just as important as running your team. So smack talk with the other managers. Just remember to keep it clean and never make it personal. If you are uncomfortable with smack talk, just post. League members love articles about the league like power rankings, matchups, funny league news, etc... You can have allot of fun with it.


3. Play Head-To-Head Leagues - If you play in multiple leagues this season, try a head-to-head league. Its much different then playing the standard rotisserie or points leagues and it carries with it more fun, excitement, and drama. In a H2H league, each week you will take on a different manager and score wins according to your matchup. This allows for strategies to not only be season long, but weekly as well. Overall you will have the fun and excitement of real baseball because each week you will face a team with 10 or more wins on the line. It allows you to play more short term, rather than the drawn out long-term version that 5x5 rotisserie offers.


4. Try Auction Style Drafts - Auction style drafts are not for the weak at heart or for the rookies. However, at some point you have to give them a try. They combine the excitement of a draft with the anxiety of an auction. They require advance study of your budget and how you will spend your allotted money. Its a much more exciting way to draft fantasy baseball.

5. Keeper Leagues - Keeper League rock for one main reason. They allow you to build a franchise and do it in a league that will exist for along time. If you play in multiple leagues, make one a keeper league. Keeper leagues carry a different flavor then the standard yearly leagues and you will get to know you opponents very well. Furthermore, it allows you to get credit for your outstanding draft picks and free agents because you get to keep them for years.

6. Listen To Podcasts and Read Blogs - Fantasy baseball podcasts are full of great information and can be very entertaining as well. Now, there are some awful ones were the information can be deadly to your team and I know of some. There are many were you will get outstanding information every week and podcasts that you can learn from. We highly recommend you listen to at least one per week. We favor The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show and The Fantasy Baseball Scouting Report. If you are reading this article, you probably already read blogs. Its good to find 2-4 blogs and to read them regularly. You can find great thoughts, strategies and breaking news in good blogs.

7. Prepare For Your Draft - This one sounds weird when we are talking about having fun, but if you don't prepare for your draft I promise you will have no fun drafting or playing the season. In order to prepare we recommend buying one magazine and reading on breaks at work, on the toilet, or before you go to bed. Then as we mentioned in #6, listen to podcasts. Good draft preparation makes the draft very exciting and therefore fun.

8. Don't Worry About The Score Early - Allot of us will fall behind early as other teams have a fast start out of the gate. You shouldn't worry about this one bit or allow it to bother you that you are in last place at the end of April. Just like in real Major League Baseball it just doesn't matter. Managers who make moves and trade away studs in September make the rest of their season stressful and sad. Imagine the managers who traded CC Sabathia last May. Exactly. Their season probably wasn't a happy one.

9. Go With Your Gut - This is critical. Nobody will be more upset if they make a decision that went AGAINST their gut and their gut ended up being right. Most of us trust ourselves and if our gut is wrong we are OK with that. The whole reason we get into this game is for the excitement of winning based on your own strategies and making your own decisions. Sure reading blogs and listening to podcasts help, but in the end you must make your own decisions and therefore go with your gut. Your gut might be wrong more than right, but if you don't win, at least you did it your way.

10. Break Up The Season By Months - The last piece of the puzzle to having a fun and exciting fantasy baseball season is developing a timeline for it. Obviously you have to play your team nearly everyday, but you don't have to strategize daily. We recommend breaking up your season by the month. Build a strategy for victory month by month and not only will your season feel shorter or even quicker, but you will always have something to play for and most of all hope. For example, in April strategize to have a strong start. After April ends, evaluate where you stand and based on those numbers, stratagize what you have to do in May. If you examine your team and score in detail every month you will get a much better picture then if you do it daily or weekly.

I hope our 10 suggestions for making your fantasy baseball season more fun will actually work for you. Even know we take the game very serious and in some cases lots of money rides on them, the bottom-line is its a game we play for fun and in the spirit of competition. We don't have the skills to play Major League Baseball or the chance to manage a MLB team, but we can fantasize about drafting a team and winning a championship. That is the excitement and fun and fantasy baseball and everything else is a cherry on top. Have fun in the 2009 season. If you have comments or questions about this article, email me at Toddf@fantasybaseballsearch.com.

The True Guru Wins The Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League

Todd "The True Guru" Farino defeated radio co-host and good friend RC "The Numbers Don't Lie" Rizza 6-4 in the championship match of the 1st annual 2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. It capped off an amazing season where Todd (I) finished with a league best regular season record of 138-74-13, and compiled an expert vs. expert record of 17-5-1 and 2-0 in the playoffs. That included my hot start of 6-0 until I lost to Roto Authority in week 7.

For the readers I'd like to discuss how I was able to win in such a competitive league with so many brilliant managers. Over the course of the season I stuck to my strategy of maintaining a well-balanced team and made some great free agent pick ups along the way. A major strategy going into this roto 5x5 H2H league was to build a strong bullpen. I felt I could take pressure of my team and shorten the matchups if I dominated the SAVES category. I finished 21-2-3 overall for the season in the saves category. I also felt that batting average was critical as well and built my offense around that. The strategy being, if your guys are getting hits then they can steal bases, score runs, and collect RBIs. For power and speed I simply tried to balance it out so I can get both, but overall I did terrible in steals.

On the pitching side I firmly believed in having a strong starting rotation. Mine was built around CC Sabathia, John Lackey, Rich Harden, Fautista Carmona, Gavin Floyd, and Todd Wellemeyer. I believed with the guys I drafted (I did draft and cut Joe Saunders & Oliver Perez) that I could win strikeouts, wins, ERA, and even WHIP would be possible. So by looking at my over all strategy I was looking to win 4/5 pitching categories and up to 3/5 hitting categories each week.

I'd like to give some praise to the players that won it for me. Here are a few top 5 lists for fun.

TOP 5 DRAFT PICKS

1. Kevin Youkilis #21 - 29 HRs, 115 RBI, and a .312 batting average. Who says you can't find power late in the draft


2. CC Sabathia #4 - Started rough, but clearly the most dominating pitcher. Single handedly won the championship week for me.


3. Jose Valverde #7 - Went against the industry by taking a powerhouse closer early. 44 saves.
   
4. Kerry Wood #18 - Many in the industry considered Marmol the closer in spring training. Marmol was drafted in the 12th round. Rounded out my bullpen with 34 saves.


5. Bengie Molina #22- Never draft a catcher early. I waited till round 22 and got a gem. .292 batting average, 16 HRs, and 95 RBI. He even batted cleanup in San Francisco.
   

TOP FIVE WORST DRAFT PICKS

1. Andruw Jones #9 - Never again will I make this mistake.


2. Robinson Cano #3 - Wow, was he not a bust for everyone!


3. Manny Corpas #10 - I did pick up Brian Fuentes, so the loss was minimal.


4. Matt Diaz #25 - I was high on this guy, and I must have been high. :)


5. James Loney #11 - Took him instead of Ellsbury and regretted it.

TOP FIVE FREE AGENT PICKUPS

1. Gavin Floyd - What a find for my 5th starter. 17-8, 3.84 ERA, and 1.26 WHIP. Outstanding.


2. Brian Fuentes - Saved my Corpas loss. 30 saves.


3. Xavier Nady - Outstanding season. .305. 25 HRs, and 97 RBI.


4. Akinori Iwamura - His numbers weren't the most exciting, but he played 2B/3B and scattered his hits very well. One of my best fill-ins and bench guys.


5. Ben Francisco/Luis Ayala - Ben was great most of the season, but slumped near the end. Tied with him was Ayala who I got late and powered up my bullpen to matchup against much bigger ones.

I made only one trade the entire season, trading Robinson Cano for Bobby Jenks. You can checkout the draft and final numbers at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/FBSEL/fantasy_baseball_search_expert_league.asp

The True Guru's 2008 Season Review: Top 10 Myths of 2008

Let’s face it, 2008 was a very exciting year with a number of predictions that came true and a number that never materialized. Many of us made bold strategic and managerial predictions that simply never came about. It is important to consider the information you take in before and during spring training. At best all of us experts are giving you are best educated guesses, but none of us are Nostradamus. So choose your fantasy baseball information wisely or it could cost you the season.

Here are the top 10 myths for 2008:

1. Outfield Power Scarcity - I'd like to know who came up with this theory. When the idea was first proposed to me I considered it as realistic, but after a few days I back off and said that is ridiculous. Every year hitters come out of the wood works, others have breakouts years, and others come off injured seasons. I didn't accept the idea and in both my fantasy leagues drafted infielders #1. Here are some numbers. There were 13 outfielders who hit 30 or more home runs. Only 28 players hit 30 or more homeruns. That's 46% of the over 30 crowd outfielders by trade. If you look at the number of outfielders who it 25+ homeruns the number jumps to 26/50 for a whopping 52% of the hitters. Tons more hit over 20 dingers, so the assumption can be made that Outfield Power Scarcity was in fact a myth.

2. Albert Pujols Surgery - This was the hottest topic in spring training. Albert Pujols' ailing elbow took center stage and allot of experts seized on it so viciously that this once #1 drat 1st basemen dropped in average draft position to 9.5 by the start of the season. What a bargain for the 9th overall pick. We know this, Pujols never had surgery on his elbow, he played in 148 games and his stats were amazing; .357 avg, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 100 runs, and 7 stolen bases. He the likely NL MVP and we can consider his elbow surgery a myth.

3. Drafting closers in the high rounds - All season I fought this battle and continued the revolution for the closer. By most respected experts in the industry it is considered taboo to draft a closer in the early rounds like 4-7. You are crazy if you do my many people's standards. The primary school of thought is you can get saves later in the draft or free agency, so focus on hitting early. I thought that was hogwash. Listen, you can find lots of hitting later in the draft or free agency (look up Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Nate McClouth), so the value of the hitters has the same reach. My thoughts on this mini-controversary was simple. I'd rather not draft junk like Todd Jones or Joe Borowski because they could step into 40 saves on accident. I told my readers and listeners to get a bonifided closer early that will not only stay closer through thick and thin, but one that if he is traded he will remain a closer. My best recommendations for early picks were Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathon Papelbon, Jose Valverde, and JJ Putz. Francisco Rodriguez finished with a record 62 saves, 18 more than the closest closer with Valverde at 44. That is an amazing statistic and without a doubt worth a 4th round pick if not a 3rd round pick. However people out there still say closers are only 1 category guys. My answer that and further proof that their draft status should be high is they carry so much more strategic value han just one category.
In both rotisserie and H2H leagues having a powerhouse closers and supporting staff will easily get you to the top in one category giving you an easy advantage throughout the year as you battle for 9 categories in a H2H or rotisserie while your opponents battle for 10.
Getting a top notch closer like Francisco Rodriguez is the equivalent to getting Jose Reyes. Both absolutely dominate 1 category. Both provide great support for the other 4 categories respectfully. Also, once you get past the first 4 or even 5 picks closers look good as the offense starts to slip. There was plenty of late offense to make up for getting a powerhouse closers.
Regardless of what is said they simply aren't just one category pitchers. In a rotisserie league where a team can compile 1200 strikeouts, operating with at least 3 closers that bring 275 K's to the match up provided the team with 23% of its strikeouts. Every strikeout counts in rotisserie. Their ERA also helps and in a league where you can throw 2000 innings, just having 3 closers provides 11% of those.
No concern of getting a great closer or losing him in the season when you draft them early. I fully admit there are closers that will get you lots of saves like Soria in the later rounds, but they are rare. However they come with risks like low strikeouts, high ERA, getting benched or traded. Those are not concerns of a Jonathon Papelbon owner.
One final note. In my Fantasy Baseball Search points league, Francisco Rodriguez had 978 points compared to the offensive leader Jose Reyes at 998.
Only 3 closers new to the full time job had 30+ saves, Sherill, Soria, and Wilson. From the top 10 drafted closers only 2 failed to get 30saves, Wagner and Putz. Both injury related. Overall, a myth.

4. Justin Verlander -I think Justin Verlander burned every expert in the world. We all thought this young man was on his way to another 100 MPH hour fantasy baseball season, but things blew up all around him and his Tiger teammates and he ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of 2008. Why? How about a record of 11-17 and an ERA 4.84 to start. Nothing really changed for Verlander except he added a changeup to the mix. He started 33 games (32 in 2007) and pitched nearly identical innings (201.2/201). Whatever happened to him injury, personal problems, just awful luck this we know; his strikeouts decreased by 11%, his walks jumped 30% and his WHIP leaped to 1.40 (24%). Justin Verlander's preseason value was certainly a myth.

5. Pitchers in the first round - No more pitchers in the 1st round. I've always been a big supporter of pitchers in the first round, while most experts do not agree. Most experts are right. Only 2 pitchers were considered in the first round, Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. Grant Santana finished the season 16-7 with 206 K's, and 2.53 ERA he just didn't carry the same value as many of his fellow players picked in the first round. Peavy was much worst, dealing with injuries and only getting 10 wins and 166 K's. He didn't even have a winning record. If the strategy of taking a 1st round pitcher was brought up to you, consider it a myth.

6. Ryan Braun - This one has some heat on it. Ryan Braun was not respected by the Sabermetric guys and many experts were afraid he'd have a sophomore slump. Well, he didn't. Besides qualifying for the outfield along with third base, Braun hit 37 homeruns, and 106 RBI, and still managed to steal 14 bases. His average did suffer with 160 more at bats then last season, but many didn't expect .324. his .285 was 39 points off, but his performance and value earned him a nd round draft pick and a myth indeed.

7. Stolen Base Scarcity - For years there has been a philosophy that big stlen base guys are a scarcity. For several years that was true, but in 2008 it no longer held up as a relative theory and it became a myth. The key number for a stolen base guy is 20. If you can get 20 you are solid, but hopefully the player can support that with 20+ home runs. Either way chasing the elusive SB was not as hard this year with a emergence of base stealers. Guys who grabbed base stealers early in the draft paid a heavy price with other managers getting stolen bases much later and competing all year for that category. In 2008 there were 37 players with 20 or more stole bases, 16 with 30+, and dozens more with 10-20 stolen bases. With more teams like the Red Sox, Phillies, and Dodgers running allot more, stolen bases are easier to find and when drafting for them easier to get. If you decide to wait on stolen bases you will find some treasures late in the draft proving stolen bases are plentiful and the scarcity question a myth.

8. Lack Of Offense In The Later Rounds - This one is easy. It is one of the most widely accepted myths in the fantasy baseball. Almost everyone preaches drafting offense early and often. Here is a list of players you could have gotten in your drafting round 15 and beyond or free agency:
Kevin Youkilis, 29/115/.312
Ryan Ludwick 37/116/.299
Carlos Quentin 36/100/.288
Carlos Delgado 38/115/.271
Dustin Pedroia 17/83/.326
Nate McLouth 26/94/.276
Aubrey Huff 32/108/.304
Jorge Cantu 29/95/.277
Xavier Nady 25/97/.305
Joey Votto 24/84/.297
Jose Guillen 20/97/.264
Evan Longoria 27/85/.272
There are lots more like Luke Scott, Jhonny Peralta, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. All these guys provided plenty of offensive power from the lower end of the draft or free agency. Nearly every one of the players listed above ranked in the top 60 offensive players in 2008.

9. Carlos Marmol - In the start of the season all eyes turned to Carlos Marmol as the Cubs closer. The talented young 6-2 flamethrower has all the talent in the world to be a closer, but got bumped for veteran Kerry Wood. We were all over this and even drafted Kerry Wood in the expert league in the late rounds. Marmol was the consensus favorite for the job, and we admit Wood was a long shot. However are analysis came up with factors that pointed towards Wood getting the job. He can't start, he's an fan favorite, he's being paid allot of money, he's a veteran, he has closer stuff, and he has to be limited in appearances and innings. The main factor was that Pinella liked having the younger guy as the setup man, so he can throw more innings and used his crafty veteran less as a closer. Respectively Marmol through 87.1 to Wood's 66.1. Since Wood ended up with 34 saves we can call this one a myth.

10. The New York Yankee Fantasy Value - The much heralded an vaunted New York Yankees offense and pitching was a puke this season. The team has a payroll that rivals the national debt, yet produced only the 10th best team in total runs at 789 and the 15th in ERA at 4.28. At one point a few years back this team was considered a fantasy team, but now its a garage sale of junk that maybe can get turned into treasure. At the start of the season there was high value players like Derek Jeter, AROD, Chamberlain, Damon, Abreau, Cano, Posada, Hughes, Kennedy, and Wang to name a few. Here are some facts about the 2008 team to sum up this season. The team high in batting average was .303, homeruns 35, and RBIs a pultry 103. Only one pitcher broke 15 wins and that was Mussina, and bright spot on a dim team with 20 wins. Some major disappointments for thsi team were Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jorge Posada. The Yankees didn't have the fabulous of a 2007, and 2008 showed further decline. Team batting average was down 8%, runs were down 15%, homeruns down 10%, and RBI production down 22%. For the guys expecting a powerful fantasy punch from the Yankee offense you got a myth.


Todd "The True Guru" Farino

The True Guru's 2008 Season Rview: "Luck"

Well, this has been one heck of a tough year for me and my radio show with other personalities. I had some problems in the industry that I did not expect or see coming, but in contrast I also made many new friends with some wonderful websites. SO overall its been a great year.



One reason I made some people in the industry upset is I don't subscribe to the same old school philosophies that have guided the industry for years. That I not only use my own formula for success, but that I also use it in full view of the fantasy baseball community with huge success. I did this through blogs, radio shows, and an expert league. Another reason they may not be happy is the fact that I tell it like it is and I don't care much for unwritten rules or agreeing just to be nice. I've said all year, if you disagree with me come on my show to defend your ideas or prove it to me in a H2H expert league.



So the whole point on this diatribe is to discuss one of two issues that were brought up on my show and blogs several times through out the year and that is the question of LUCK. This was the topic of one argument between me and a former co host of The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show. To note, my former co host's managing philosophy is build completely around sabermetrics. Now there are many managers who believe in luck, and there are even several different ways they believe in it. Those ways can be injuries, breakout or unexpected performance, scoring points at the right time, or your player playing more or less then expected, etc...

For the most part as I've said on my shows, luck exists how my former co host would say "in a vacuum". You see luck effects every team nearly every day, so chalk it up no different then RSTLN E on Wheel Of Fortune (Those are the letters chosen so often for the grand prize game that Wheel Of Fortune ended up making them automatic and allowing the contestant to pick 4 more letters.)

Luck is automatic except in cases of injury where we call it "bad luck". Its as simple as that and anyone who argues it different cannot consider themselves a champion of this game. By no means can you assume and I mean making an ASS out of YOU and ME. That's right you cannot assume that a player is lucky for whatever reason or that one player had bad luck. That a pitcher who gives up 14 more home runs then the year before is bad luck or a hitter stealing 10 more bases good luck. Its just not.

Since we already established that it's automatic for everyone then we can accept that at one point or another we all have good and bad luck.

My thoughts are simple; there are skills, strategies, pinpoint perfect moves, but there is not bad luck. There are educated guesses, match ups at the wrong time, and breakout performances that ruin your week, but no such bad luck.

The people that crow the most about "luck" are followers of the Religion of Sabermatrics (ZALTAR!). This is an amazing breakthrough as a tool used to enhance scouting in MLB, but instead it has been transformed by fantasy experts and has replaced scouting in that arena. That is just not what its meant for.

The reason they cry "luck" more than anyone is they refuse to admit that there are serious flaws in their precious calculations and that sabermetrics can and often does fail. Therefore it becomes their answer to something sabermetrics could not explain. It must be luck.


Let's see if this works in other professions:

Well, I don't know how it happened, but with some good luck I managed to give you a heart transplant.

I don't know why she died. I guess I was having bad luck cause my CPR didn't save her.

I got a "F" on my exam BAD LUCK!

OK, you all get it. Its an excuse because they can't explain what happened. The difference in statisticians, voyeurs, scouting experts, gut guys, and other experts don't have that problem nearly as often if ever. We analyze actual data or film and make expert decisions. We don't plug numbers into a formula and draft a team based on a few percentages and formulas.

So when you hear about "luck" from a sabermetrics expert know that what he is actually telling you is, "I can't explain why that happened GOOD LUCK OR BAD LUCK.

Here are some 2008 Examples that sabermetric experts would attribute luck too:

Gavin Floyd - He was lucky
Xavier Nady - He was lucky
Jose Reyes - He was unlucky
Jacoby Ellsbury - He was lucky

(Trust me there are many more)


To wrap this up, I hope I've made my point clear that using luck outside of injuries is a weak excuse and if the experts that you take advice from whip out luck as an excuse because what they said didn't happen, walk away and go towards the light of an expert who explains luck rather than use it to hide their flaws and mistakes..


I promise The True Guru doesn't believe in luck like that, just winning.


Todd "The True Guru" Farino

The Fantasy Baseball Bible Releases Book 8! Late Season Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Bible is proud to announce the release of Book 8 - Gearing Up For The Dog Days. This latest of the the 10 book bible features handling the most intense months of the season and dealing with issues like the trade deadline, September call-ups, making a playoff, and much more.

Check it out at The Fantasy Baseball Bible

Book 8 - Gearing Up For The Dog Days

HEAD-TO-HEAD Value of Closers For Your Team

OK, so I'm sure you all know by now that I am a proponent of closers. I think they hold a special value to any fantasy team. In a H2H league format they are priceless. In the FBSEL that I'm playing its your typical 5x5 Roto H2H format, which saves is of course one of the categories. I drafted 3 closers because my strategy was to shorten the contest to winning 5 out of 9 to win the week, while my opponent has to win 6 out of 9. Better than that having 3 or 4 closers also allows you to focus your attention away from saves and keep you focus on the categories you still need to win. That can be an advantage if your opponent is trying to muster up saves to compete with you.

Another advantage of having several strong closers is their ability to help your strikeouts, get occasional wins, and keep your ERA and WHIP lower in most cases. Again, this relaxes your need for several dominant starters allowing you to focus more picks and energy on offense. Many closers average 1+ strikeouts per appearance so you are likely to gets extra strikeouts along with some of your setup guys.

The final advantage is what that win does for your team week in and week out. In the FBSEL, after 11 weeks I am 8-0-3. I have never been beat in that category. Those 8 wins out of my 70 are 11% of my total wins and attribute nothing to losses. My lead right now in my division is only 12 games, I've picked up 9.5 of those 12 in the 11 weeks with just saves. Let's say I finish the season 16-2-5 in saves. Wow, that could be the difference of me making the playoffs or not.

What's even better is I told you they can have a positive impact on a pitching staff right? Well, my pitching staff as a whole in 11 weeks has a dominant 38-13-4 record in the expert league. Whether the stats will back up that I'm doing that well because of closers is not known, but it allows me to not have to invest so much time and effort into improving my pitching when I'm clearly dominating.

So I grab offense in free agency and trades. How has my offense responded? 33-17-5. Again, one of the best and certainly very good.

My overall record in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is 71-30-9, which is the best record in the league. Now I'm not saying it all has to do with Valverde, Wood, Fuentes, and a small cast of setup men. What I'm saying is that is where your team can develop its strength, keep for getting wiped out in a week, and give you a head start nearly every week.

The True Guru

KFFL: Fantasy Baseball: Streaming pitchers

I found this great article on pitcher streaming from KFFL written by Michael Egnak and edited by Nicholas Minnix.

One of the great things about fantasy baseball is the endless number of strategies owners can attempt in an effort to win year after year. One such strategy is streaming starting pitchers, where an owner constantly hits the waiver wire to pick up the best pitcher, or pitchers, starting in an upcoming timeframe. While this practice can be effective, it can also prove to be disastrous in the long run depending on a league's format and settings. Fantasy baseball players, particularly those looking for an edge, want to know how and when to use this approach.
There are two things fantasy owners should know first, though: 1) Streaming is a plan that is best concocted before the draft, and 2) Streaming may not win fantasy owners a ton of friends, especially in head-to-head leagues.

If a one plans to stream pitchers, one ideally would draft a team loaded with stud closers and stud hitters. This allows one to employ the strategy to its utmost potential.
With a team like that, though, it's easy to make enemies. Many fantasy owners view this practice as unethical because the streamer is taking advantage of the rules (or lack thereof) and is not "playing fairly." They often don't want to devote the time it takes to stream. The ethics of streaming are for another place and time; it's up to the league to decide whether streaming is allowed, and the fairest way to do that is to enact rules that discourage it.

Rotisserie leagues

In roto leagues, owners should only consider using streaming pitchers if there is no maximum innings limit for your league's settings. With no innings limit, a team can throw pitcher after pitcher into the lineup to build up strikeouts and wins. This can help a fantasy team reach the top in those two particular categories.

However, this style of play does have risks associated with it. The pitchers that tend to be used in this strategy are usually on the waiver wire for a reason, whether it is because of high WHIPs and ERAs or because they are frustratingly inconsistent from start to start. As a result, using these pitchers can wreak havoc on your fantasy team's WHIP and ERA over the course of the season; that, of course, can potentially cause a team to finish in the lower half in both categories. With this in mind, owners have to consider what the better option is. Streaming pitchers can essentially balance itself out for a team, with the advantage of high strikeouts and wins being negated by a poor WHIP and ERA. The depth of the league along with the quality of the pitchers available on the wire play a big role in whether streaming is beneficial.

For rotisserie leagues that have an innings limit, streaming pitchers really should be reconsidered. While the team streaming pitchers may be leading in strikeouts and wins now, they could find themselves back in the middle of the pack or worse once August rolls around. Strikeout rate is the biggest factor in winning the strikeouts category in fantasy baseball leagues with innings limits. If an owner is a streaming a player with a low strikeout rate, the owner is merely taking innings away from another pitcher with a better one.

In order to stream pitchers most effectively in rotisserie leagues with an innings limit, owners need to be more selective with the starters they throw into the lineup. One way to maximize strikeouts and win potential is to stick with pitchers who have only the most favorable matchups. This can also help a team maintain a respectable WHIP and ERA at the same time. Teams with poor offenses (the San Francisco Giants, for example), especially those that strike out a lot (i.e., the San Diego Padres), make for great streaming matchups. Keep your eye on team stats to determine the best matchups going.

Being quick on the waiver wire for prospects with great potential also can be helpful. However, there is inherent risk with inexperienced pitchers, so make sure you do your research on them.

Head-to-head leagues

In head-to-head leagues, the streaming strategy can be used much more successfully. There is usually no innings limit in head-to-head formats, so teams can go for as many starts possible in any given week. Fantasy owners can load up on hurlers with two starts for the upcoming week or pick up the best available starters every day; then, they can try to dominate strikeouts and wins. With the streaming team gaining an immediate advantage in two pitching categories, it just needs to take a few hitting categories to steal a cheap win most weeks.

The best part is that there's a chance for the team using streaming pitchers to take ERA and WHIP as well. The team with what might be a more solid pitching staff may be forced to use its better pitchers regardless of whom they face or where they pitch in order to compete. Meanwhile, the team streaming pitchers can pick and choose from those with better matchups. The chance of winning ERA and WHIP is much greater in shallow leagues, though, because as the player pool becomes emptier, the quality goes down considerably.

The problem with using this approach in head-to-head leagues is that the more consistent pitchers are already owned, so the pitchers left on the waiver wire are usually pitchers with poor WHIPs and ERAs. It also won't help that when streaming pitchers in this format, there's a chance that the better starters that are thrown back will get picked up by someone else. With this in mind, the trick to using this tactic in head-to-head formats is to use as few roster spots as possible - one or two, ideally - to stream pitchers. Keeping the more consistent starters allows for some stability, and streaming only the better pitchers with the best matchups should give boosts in strikeouts and wins.

Summary

Now that the advantages and disadvantages of streaming pitchers have been noted, it's time to decide if this is the strategy for you. Obviously if you're the type of fantasy owner who likes stability on your team, this approach won't sit well for you; it might not sit well with your fellow owners, either. Streaming pitchers means you have to be quick on the waiver wire on a daily basis. It not only means that fantasy player has to be able to recognize who is currently on a hot streak but also who has favorable matchups.

For those who are confident in their ability to make the right calls week after week, this strategy could prove fruitful. It allows owners to focus on grabbing the best, most consistent hitters in an effort to dominate the offensive categories. Then they can use streaming in an attempt to finish in the upper half, at least, in most of the pitching categories, or to win a majority of head-to-head categories each week. If successful, it could mean a high finish in the standings come September.

Pitcher Streaming; When and How To Do It

I've been asked a ton about pitcher streaming and even in my expert league over at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/ EXPERTS are streaming.

I've always maintained that there is nothing wrong with streaming. My only fix on it is you should only do it when you need to and not because you can. PS (Pitcher Streaming) does take away from the competitive nature of the game, and reduces the competition down to whoever can pick up and throw more pitchers.

Here's when you should stream. Its best to stream in H2H formats where you need to win a few categories. If you are losing or tied consider using PS. Make sure that you have no chance to win the categories that PS can hurt and that you have a chance to win the categories PS will help. PS will always help strikeouts, wins, and innings.

Its best to stream in a H2H Roto League where there is only 4 categories for starting pitchers.

My suggestion is if you need to do it, don't worry about wins. Whether or not if the pitcher is good he may not win, so why bother. Get pitchers who can strikeout. Better yet, check the pitchers who are probables that week and look at the teams they are facing. Then goto this link at MLB.com and check out which teams strikeout the most. For example, the Florida Marlins lead the league in strikeouts with 368 and second place goes to the Padres with 363. Look for starters facing teams that strikeout allot and if you are lucky a good strikeout pitcher facing a strikeout team and you are in.

There are no guarantees in PS, but we will all have to do it at some point and if you make the right pick ups it will pay off. If you don't, the damage will be done.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/

The Strategists Vs. The House Rules; Which Expert Is For You?

Ok, I think I finally figured out what this melee is all about. Forget the differences on closers or hitters between industry experts. It is really much deeper than that. What I have figured out is something we all already knew, that each "Expert" has their own philosophy. I took this one step further and examined the several different philosophies and broke it down into to groups; The Strategists and The House Rules. Its really that simple and I will explain.
If anyone doesn't know, the term "house rules" is famous from Las Vegas and describes the gambling rules and philosophies for playing in the casinos, hence the house rules of blackjack. They always tell you double down on 11, never hit on 17 or above, if the dealer has a bust hand, its safest to for you to "stay". Those are rules we all take to the Blackjack table and play with. The same can be said for Fantasy Baseball. Now, the "House Rules Experts" (HRE) are certainly in the majority at this time and their philosophies on winning all center around playing by the fantasy baseball house rules. If you listen to these HRE's on the radio or read their blogs you will tend to notice similarities on the way they approach fantasy advice. Here are a few examples;
1. They always give advice from the point of view of a 5x5 rotisserie league.
2. They will always have ironclad rules such as no closers early, hitters are a must, etc...
3. They tend to update their rules at the beginning of the season like get power hitting outfielders in 2008, they are scarce.
Normally House Rules are simple to follow and rigid in their construction. If you follow them and you have lady luck on your side (just like Vegas) then you can certainly win your leagues. The problem with house rules are they cannot conform quickly enough to changes throughout the season and certainly do not apply to all league types. They can't be applied to Rotohog.com, H2H, or even points leagues. So house rules really only apply to the most common of league types the 5x5 rotisserie, but still that leaves out allot of owners. Another problem with house rules is they are the same year to year with minor modifications. The whole closer rule has been in place for years and certainly needs to change with the times such as the closer role has changed. However, it hasn't. We will get more into this fascinating philosophy later in this article.
Then there are the up and coming strategists, which I consider myself one. Strategists have been around since the beginning of time. If you want to spot a "Strategist Expert" look for the experts who plays and strategizes the game day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month. There is only one ironclad rule for a strategist, "There are no rules". A strategist will play his team based on his own personal philosophies of winning and in most cases will not bend.
Just because the common though in fantasy baseball is outfield power is scarce doesn't mean you should draft around that theory. A strategist will develop their own theory and draft around it as such. Now there are draw backs for strategists. They will tend to over think situations, trades, and players to start. Also, if their strategy is wrong from the get-go it will be hard to change strategy midway and still win your league. Still, it's the philosophy of trusting your instinct that guides the strategist.
So after reading all that you are asking me, "True GURU, which is better? Which philosophy should I listen too for great advice?
Obviously since I'm a "Strategist Expert" (SE) myself I will tell you that that is the way to go. I feel there is a revolution in the air and the new breed of expert coming out like myself, Patrick DiCaprio and others consider the strategy of the game, and this is causing a stir in the industry especially amongst the old-school experts. In my opinion, they should be scared because the advice they are giving out just simply doesn't apply anymore to all facets of the game. I'll say this, if you are new to the game of fantasy baseball, otherwise a novice, its great to learn the house rules and from HREs. Once you become more advanced, you have to move on and take yourself to the next level of developing your own winnings strategies that apply to your league. Here is an example. I'm in 6 leagues right now. Here are the league types:
16x16 Roto (this league stinks)
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head (expert league)
Total Points League
Total Points Head-to-Head
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head
Rotohog.com League
Not one of those leagues are a standard 5x5 rotisserie league, so the house rules just simple don't apply by default to any of them. For example in the points league closers are very valuable, so its best to have 5, and have good ones with a total innings maximum. So the argument over closers is in favor of the strategist. We can do that all day, but you get the point.
"House Rules Experts" play it safe. Think about it. If everyone says take Jose Reyes #2 overall, and they are right, then they all pat themselves on the back. If they are wrong they will all say, "well we all got it wrong." However, I disagreed with that philosophy and saw beyond the hype and felt Hanley Ramirez was a far superior shortstop and in the expert league took him 3rd overall directly after Jose Reyes. Who won that battle so far?
Then there was the talk of getting closers late in the draft or even free agency. I remember when I was discussing this during an expert draft it was said that you shouldn't take a closer early when you can get "Todd Jones or Joe Borowski much later in the draft."
I wonder how that "house rules" advice is holding up?

Basically comparing the two philosophies is like comparing the Yankees and Red Sox since the year 2001. Both have different ideas of building a championship team. The Red Sox used sabermetrics, team chemistry, an infusion of youth, and a few high priced veterans to get two rings. The Strategist Expert is the same. We believe you have to do lots of little things to win the championship and just drafting or picking up free agents is enough.

The Yankees philosophy was born to lose. They went out and signed huge contracts with every high-priced veteran they could find like Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez, and more. They didn't consider team chemistry or sabermetrics. They played by the old-school house rules, which they invented as far back as signing Reggie Jackson. Those rules are to have the better team by having the better players. As you can see, they've stunk ever since for a 200+ million dollar payroll.

So maybe some HRE's don't get it. They don't understand that times have changed and taking fancy hitters like Travis Hafner in the 2nd round in 2007 maybe wasn't a good move. They haven;t yet figured out that by simple roster manipulation you can dominate a league or by finding gems in free agency make up for taking a solid closer early. If I ended up with Joe Borowski, Kerry Wood, and Todd Jones after my draft a HRE would tell me I did great.

Mmm...

Of course the HRE would point out Soria, Sherrill, and Lyons and say you could have gotten those guys. Sure House Rules Expert, but I could have the others and frankly having a Mariano Rivera or Joe Nathan is alright in my book cause I know at year end they'll have a job.

Of course offense will suffer unless you get late round pickups on offense like Kevin Youkilis, Josh Willingham, Edwin Encarnacion , or Nate McClouth. Heck even Xavier Nady is looking good.

So when you decide on a philosophy for playing the game avoid the house rules only if you want to win and become a self-sufficient strategist.

There's No Place Like Home

There's No Place Like Home - Article found on ESPN. We wanted to share it with our readers.

By AJ Mass of ESPN

If you can't find what you're looking for in your own backyard, perhaps you'll never be able to find it all. While most players will tell you they prefer sleeping in their own bed at night, most of the time they're still able to produce away from the friendly confines of their home ballpark. However, while some players' home numbers glow like a beautiful Technicolor picture, their road numbers come through in dreary black and white. As a fantasy owner, you can hope your fortitude will lead you to do the right thing (bench a player) when you see a twister on the distant horizon, but it takes a lot of nerve to actually pull that trigger, especially when your heart might be telling you something different. Unless you want to end up in bed with a cold compress on your head, you should pick up the warning signs these guys are throwing your way:

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs (Home batting average: .407; road batting average: .227). Fukudome has "blown in" from Kagoshima, Japan and seems to have found a home inside the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Away from Wrigley, however, that's a horse of a different color.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates (Home runs at home: 5; home runs on the road: 1). What's interesting here is the Pirates have only 11 homers at home as a team, and they've actually hit more of them on the "yellow-brick" road.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (RBIs at home: 17; RBIs on the road: 4).
Big Papi is more like the Wizard at home; on the road, maybe the scarecrow, flopping around on the ground trying to collect all that lost straw?

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Home stolen bases: 5; road stolen bases: 1).
It's 90 feet between the bases no matter where those bases might happen to reside, but apparently Ichiro's feet simply aren't as fleet if he's not breathing in that fresh "Emerald City" air.
Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Home ERA: 0.89 ERA; Road ERA: 8.10 ERA). At home, Maholm is a good, good witch. On the road, his ERA is the most wicked of them all. Have a little fire, Paul! It's time to step up your game and cut down on those long balls you've been giving up in the opposing team's parks.

Jake Peavy, SP, Padres (Home K/9 rate: 9.29; road K/9 rate: 4.50).
We know Petco gives pitchers "da nerve" to take a few chances with their pitch selection, but should it really have that much of an effect on strikeouts? Hmm, sure seems like it does.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals (Home batting average of balls in play: .183; road BIPA: .288) Sure seems like Bannister knows all too well when he's not in Kansas, er, Kansas City anymore. At the very least, he seems to have the flying monkeys known as luck working against him more when he's on the road.

Troy Percival, RP, Rays (Saves at home: 4; saves on the road: 1):
Okay, so this is more because the Rays win more at home (and also haven't played many on the road yet), but this is also a theme that carries over from last season. The Rays went 29-52 on the road in 2007. If the Rays can't play well enough in their road grays to find the need to call on Troy, then all that rust may well lead to this tin man's demise.

Now that you've been given ample warning of a few players to avoid when the schedule forces them away from the family farm, the choice is yours whether to leave them active. You can be a happy little bluebird and ignore it, but beware of the house falling from the sky and crushing your championship dreams, ruby slippers and all.