KFFL: Fantasy Baseball: Streaming pitchers

I found this great article on pitcher streaming from KFFL written by Michael Egnak and edited by Nicholas Minnix.

One of the great things about fantasy baseball is the endless number of strategies owners can attempt in an effort to win year after year. One such strategy is streaming starting pitchers, where an owner constantly hits the waiver wire to pick up the best pitcher, or pitchers, starting in an upcoming timeframe. While this practice can be effective, it can also prove to be disastrous in the long run depending on a league's format and settings. Fantasy baseball players, particularly those looking for an edge, want to know how and when to use this approach.
There are two things fantasy owners should know first, though: 1) Streaming is a plan that is best concocted before the draft, and 2) Streaming may not win fantasy owners a ton of friends, especially in head-to-head leagues.

If a one plans to stream pitchers, one ideally would draft a team loaded with stud closers and stud hitters. This allows one to employ the strategy to its utmost potential.
With a team like that, though, it's easy to make enemies. Many fantasy owners view this practice as unethical because the streamer is taking advantage of the rules (or lack thereof) and is not "playing fairly." They often don't want to devote the time it takes to stream. The ethics of streaming are for another place and time; it's up to the league to decide whether streaming is allowed, and the fairest way to do that is to enact rules that discourage it.

Rotisserie leagues

In roto leagues, owners should only consider using streaming pitchers if there is no maximum innings limit for your league's settings. With no innings limit, a team can throw pitcher after pitcher into the lineup to build up strikeouts and wins. This can help a fantasy team reach the top in those two particular categories.

However, this style of play does have risks associated with it. The pitchers that tend to be used in this strategy are usually on the waiver wire for a reason, whether it is because of high WHIPs and ERAs or because they are frustratingly inconsistent from start to start. As a result, using these pitchers can wreak havoc on your fantasy team's WHIP and ERA over the course of the season; that, of course, can potentially cause a team to finish in the lower half in both categories. With this in mind, owners have to consider what the better option is. Streaming pitchers can essentially balance itself out for a team, with the advantage of high strikeouts and wins being negated by a poor WHIP and ERA. The depth of the league along with the quality of the pitchers available on the wire play a big role in whether streaming is beneficial.

For rotisserie leagues that have an innings limit, streaming pitchers really should be reconsidered. While the team streaming pitchers may be leading in strikeouts and wins now, they could find themselves back in the middle of the pack or worse once August rolls around. Strikeout rate is the biggest factor in winning the strikeouts category in fantasy baseball leagues with innings limits. If an owner is a streaming a player with a low strikeout rate, the owner is merely taking innings away from another pitcher with a better one.

In order to stream pitchers most effectively in rotisserie leagues with an innings limit, owners need to be more selective with the starters they throw into the lineup. One way to maximize strikeouts and win potential is to stick with pitchers who have only the most favorable matchups. This can also help a team maintain a respectable WHIP and ERA at the same time. Teams with poor offenses (the San Francisco Giants, for example), especially those that strike out a lot (i.e., the San Diego Padres), make for great streaming matchups. Keep your eye on team stats to determine the best matchups going.

Being quick on the waiver wire for prospects with great potential also can be helpful. However, there is inherent risk with inexperienced pitchers, so make sure you do your research on them.

Head-to-head leagues

In head-to-head leagues, the streaming strategy can be used much more successfully. There is usually no innings limit in head-to-head formats, so teams can go for as many starts possible in any given week. Fantasy owners can load up on hurlers with two starts for the upcoming week or pick up the best available starters every day; then, they can try to dominate strikeouts and wins. With the streaming team gaining an immediate advantage in two pitching categories, it just needs to take a few hitting categories to steal a cheap win most weeks.

The best part is that there's a chance for the team using streaming pitchers to take ERA and WHIP as well. The team with what might be a more solid pitching staff may be forced to use its better pitchers regardless of whom they face or where they pitch in order to compete. Meanwhile, the team streaming pitchers can pick and choose from those with better matchups. The chance of winning ERA and WHIP is much greater in shallow leagues, though, because as the player pool becomes emptier, the quality goes down considerably.

The problem with using this approach in head-to-head leagues is that the more consistent pitchers are already owned, so the pitchers left on the waiver wire are usually pitchers with poor WHIPs and ERAs. It also won't help that when streaming pitchers in this format, there's a chance that the better starters that are thrown back will get picked up by someone else. With this in mind, the trick to using this tactic in head-to-head formats is to use as few roster spots as possible - one or two, ideally - to stream pitchers. Keeping the more consistent starters allows for some stability, and streaming only the better pitchers with the best matchups should give boosts in strikeouts and wins.

Summary

Now that the advantages and disadvantages of streaming pitchers have been noted, it's time to decide if this is the strategy for you. Obviously if you're the type of fantasy owner who likes stability on your team, this approach won't sit well for you; it might not sit well with your fellow owners, either. Streaming pitchers means you have to be quick on the waiver wire on a daily basis. It not only means that fantasy player has to be able to recognize who is currently on a hot streak but also who has favorable matchups.

For those who are confident in their ability to make the right calls week after week, this strategy could prove fruitful. It allows owners to focus on grabbing the best, most consistent hitters in an effort to dominate the offensive categories. Then they can use streaming in an attempt to finish in the upper half, at least, in most of the pitching categories, or to win a majority of head-to-head categories each week. If successful, it could mean a high finish in the standings come September.

Pitcher Streaming; When and How To Do It

I've been asked a ton about pitcher streaming and even in my expert league over at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/ EXPERTS are streaming.

I've always maintained that there is nothing wrong with streaming. My only fix on it is you should only do it when you need to and not because you can. PS (Pitcher Streaming) does take away from the competitive nature of the game, and reduces the competition down to whoever can pick up and throw more pitchers.

Here's when you should stream. Its best to stream in H2H formats where you need to win a few categories. If you are losing or tied consider using PS. Make sure that you have no chance to win the categories that PS can hurt and that you have a chance to win the categories PS will help. PS will always help strikeouts, wins, and innings.

Its best to stream in a H2H Roto League where there is only 4 categories for starting pitchers.

My suggestion is if you need to do it, don't worry about wins. Whether or not if the pitcher is good he may not win, so why bother. Get pitchers who can strikeout. Better yet, check the pitchers who are probables that week and look at the teams they are facing. Then goto this link at MLB.com and check out which teams strikeout the most. For example, the Florida Marlins lead the league in strikeouts with 368 and second place goes to the Padres with 363. Look for starters facing teams that strikeout allot and if you are lucky a good strikeout pitcher facing a strikeout team and you are in.

There are no guarantees in PS, but we will all have to do it at some point and if you make the right pick ups it will pay off. If you don't, the damage will be done.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/

The Strategists Vs. The House Rules; Which Expert Is For You?

Ok, I think I finally figured out what this melee is all about. Forget the differences on closers or hitters between industry experts. It is really much deeper than that. What I have figured out is something we all already knew, that each "Expert" has their own philosophy. I took this one step further and examined the several different philosophies and broke it down into to groups; The Strategists and The House Rules. Its really that simple and I will explain.
If anyone doesn't know, the term "house rules" is famous from Las Vegas and describes the gambling rules and philosophies for playing in the casinos, hence the house rules of blackjack. They always tell you double down on 11, never hit on 17 or above, if the dealer has a bust hand, its safest to for you to "stay". Those are rules we all take to the Blackjack table and play with. The same can be said for Fantasy Baseball. Now, the "House Rules Experts" (HRE) are certainly in the majority at this time and their philosophies on winning all center around playing by the fantasy baseball house rules. If you listen to these HRE's on the radio or read their blogs you will tend to notice similarities on the way they approach fantasy advice. Here are a few examples;
1. They always give advice from the point of view of a 5x5 rotisserie league.
2. They will always have ironclad rules such as no closers early, hitters are a must, etc...
3. They tend to update their rules at the beginning of the season like get power hitting outfielders in 2008, they are scarce.
Normally House Rules are simple to follow and rigid in their construction. If you follow them and you have lady luck on your side (just like Vegas) then you can certainly win your leagues. The problem with house rules are they cannot conform quickly enough to changes throughout the season and certainly do not apply to all league types. They can't be applied to Rotohog.com, H2H, or even points leagues. So house rules really only apply to the most common of league types the 5x5 rotisserie, but still that leaves out allot of owners. Another problem with house rules is they are the same year to year with minor modifications. The whole closer rule has been in place for years and certainly needs to change with the times such as the closer role has changed. However, it hasn't. We will get more into this fascinating philosophy later in this article.
Then there are the up and coming strategists, which I consider myself one. Strategists have been around since the beginning of time. If you want to spot a "Strategist Expert" look for the experts who plays and strategizes the game day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month. There is only one ironclad rule for a strategist, "There are no rules". A strategist will play his team based on his own personal philosophies of winning and in most cases will not bend.
Just because the common though in fantasy baseball is outfield power is scarce doesn't mean you should draft around that theory. A strategist will develop their own theory and draft around it as such. Now there are draw backs for strategists. They will tend to over think situations, trades, and players to start. Also, if their strategy is wrong from the get-go it will be hard to change strategy midway and still win your league. Still, it's the philosophy of trusting your instinct that guides the strategist.
So after reading all that you are asking me, "True GURU, which is better? Which philosophy should I listen too for great advice?
Obviously since I'm a "Strategist Expert" (SE) myself I will tell you that that is the way to go. I feel there is a revolution in the air and the new breed of expert coming out like myself, Patrick DiCaprio and others consider the strategy of the game, and this is causing a stir in the industry especially amongst the old-school experts. In my opinion, they should be scared because the advice they are giving out just simply doesn't apply anymore to all facets of the game. I'll say this, if you are new to the game of fantasy baseball, otherwise a novice, its great to learn the house rules and from HREs. Once you become more advanced, you have to move on and take yourself to the next level of developing your own winnings strategies that apply to your league. Here is an example. I'm in 6 leagues right now. Here are the league types:
16x16 Roto (this league stinks)
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head (expert league)
Total Points League
Total Points Head-to-Head
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head
Rotohog.com League
Not one of those leagues are a standard 5x5 rotisserie league, so the house rules just simple don't apply by default to any of them. For example in the points league closers are very valuable, so its best to have 5, and have good ones with a total innings maximum. So the argument over closers is in favor of the strategist. We can do that all day, but you get the point.
"House Rules Experts" play it safe. Think about it. If everyone says take Jose Reyes #2 overall, and they are right, then they all pat themselves on the back. If they are wrong they will all say, "well we all got it wrong." However, I disagreed with that philosophy and saw beyond the hype and felt Hanley Ramirez was a far superior shortstop and in the expert league took him 3rd overall directly after Jose Reyes. Who won that battle so far?
Then there was the talk of getting closers late in the draft or even free agency. I remember when I was discussing this during an expert draft it was said that you shouldn't take a closer early when you can get "Todd Jones or Joe Borowski much later in the draft."
I wonder how that "house rules" advice is holding up?

Basically comparing the two philosophies is like comparing the Yankees and Red Sox since the year 2001. Both have different ideas of building a championship team. The Red Sox used sabermetrics, team chemistry, an infusion of youth, and a few high priced veterans to get two rings. The Strategist Expert is the same. We believe you have to do lots of little things to win the championship and just drafting or picking up free agents is enough.

The Yankees philosophy was born to lose. They went out and signed huge contracts with every high-priced veteran they could find like Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez, and more. They didn't consider team chemistry or sabermetrics. They played by the old-school house rules, which they invented as far back as signing Reggie Jackson. Those rules are to have the better team by having the better players. As you can see, they've stunk ever since for a 200+ million dollar payroll.

So maybe some HRE's don't get it. They don't understand that times have changed and taking fancy hitters like Travis Hafner in the 2nd round in 2007 maybe wasn't a good move. They haven;t yet figured out that by simple roster manipulation you can dominate a league or by finding gems in free agency make up for taking a solid closer early. If I ended up with Joe Borowski, Kerry Wood, and Todd Jones after my draft a HRE would tell me I did great.

Mmm...

Of course the HRE would point out Soria, Sherrill, and Lyons and say you could have gotten those guys. Sure House Rules Expert, but I could have the others and frankly having a Mariano Rivera or Joe Nathan is alright in my book cause I know at year end they'll have a job.

Of course offense will suffer unless you get late round pickups on offense like Kevin Youkilis, Josh Willingham, Edwin Encarnacion , or Nate McClouth. Heck even Xavier Nady is looking good.

So when you decide on a philosophy for playing the game avoid the house rules only if you want to win and become a self-sufficient strategist.

There's No Place Like Home

There's No Place Like Home - Article found on ESPN. We wanted to share it with our readers.

By AJ Mass of ESPN

If you can't find what you're looking for in your own backyard, perhaps you'll never be able to find it all. While most players will tell you they prefer sleeping in their own bed at night, most of the time they're still able to produce away from the friendly confines of their home ballpark. However, while some players' home numbers glow like a beautiful Technicolor picture, their road numbers come through in dreary black and white. As a fantasy owner, you can hope your fortitude will lead you to do the right thing (bench a player) when you see a twister on the distant horizon, but it takes a lot of nerve to actually pull that trigger, especially when your heart might be telling you something different. Unless you want to end up in bed with a cold compress on your head, you should pick up the warning signs these guys are throwing your way:

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs (Home batting average: .407; road batting average: .227). Fukudome has "blown in" from Kagoshima, Japan and seems to have found a home inside the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Away from Wrigley, however, that's a horse of a different color.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates (Home runs at home: 5; home runs on the road: 1). What's interesting here is the Pirates have only 11 homers at home as a team, and they've actually hit more of them on the "yellow-brick" road.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (RBIs at home: 17; RBIs on the road: 4).
Big Papi is more like the Wizard at home; on the road, maybe the scarecrow, flopping around on the ground trying to collect all that lost straw?

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Home stolen bases: 5; road stolen bases: 1).
It's 90 feet between the bases no matter where those bases might happen to reside, but apparently Ichiro's feet simply aren't as fleet if he's not breathing in that fresh "Emerald City" air.
Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Home ERA: 0.89 ERA; Road ERA: 8.10 ERA). At home, Maholm is a good, good witch. On the road, his ERA is the most wicked of them all. Have a little fire, Paul! It's time to step up your game and cut down on those long balls you've been giving up in the opposing team's parks.

Jake Peavy, SP, Padres (Home K/9 rate: 9.29; road K/9 rate: 4.50).
We know Petco gives pitchers "da nerve" to take a few chances with their pitch selection, but should it really have that much of an effect on strikeouts? Hmm, sure seems like it does.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals (Home batting average of balls in play: .183; road BIPA: .288) Sure seems like Bannister knows all too well when he's not in Kansas, er, Kansas City anymore. At the very least, he seems to have the flying monkeys known as luck working against him more when he's on the road.

Troy Percival, RP, Rays (Saves at home: 4; saves on the road: 1):
Okay, so this is more because the Rays win more at home (and also haven't played many on the road yet), but this is also a theme that carries over from last season. The Rays went 29-52 on the road in 2007. If the Rays can't play well enough in their road grays to find the need to call on Troy, then all that rust may well lead to this tin man's demise.

Now that you've been given ample warning of a few players to avoid when the schedule forces them away from the family farm, the choice is yours whether to leave them active. You can be a happy little bluebird and ignore it, but beware of the house falling from the sky and crushing your championship dreams, ruby slippers and all.

The Case For The Definition Of An Expert

This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this blog isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's allot of what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with you.
I got a decent hammering on some of my opinions on closers and how the experts reasoned their view. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is and more so trying to define if someone is an expert. After that, I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.

As a fantasy manager myself , I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.

Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closers almost has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.

Hold on, what if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's hard if not impossible to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.

I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.
After talking with my friend and co-host Patrick DiCaprio we came up with what we think an expert might be. We think we've solved this fascinating case on what the definition of an expert. In our discussing, we removed the fact that just because you are an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, you win allot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, but are at the very least fine reasons to support a person's case. What makes us an expert is the people who listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It is our listeners and readers who determine that we are an expert. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.

That is what its all about. So after this blog you will here nothing more about me or anyone else being an expert. I'll leave that up to you.

And by the way, Patrick, RC, an I prefer to be called "gurus" instead of experts if you so offer the courtesy.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.