More on The Closer Wars The True GURU Vs Cincotta & Melnick

So yesterday I went on The Fantasy Baseball Mafia radio show and hammered it out with Tony Cincotta concerning closers. Tony, at least on the show was in favor of the Melnick position of not necessarily drafting closers. The way he presented this position was to ask me,

"When was Jose Valverde drafted last year?"

"Where did Joe Borowski get picked?"

He even went on to ask me about JJ Putz. I could tell as these questions were being fired at me that Tony was passionate about his position on this subject, but he threw his expertise and his argument out the door when he decided to attack my position with that kind of evidence.

Here's the deal in this argument and it's almost silly. The Melnick supporters will claim you can get a closer later in the draft or in free agency so why draft early at all?

Now let me clarify my position to make sure it's understood because it's clear Tony Cincotta did not understand my position at all. I believe that there is nothing wrong with taking 1 or 2 closers in the top 11 rounds. Then follow that up in the next 15-16 rounds of the draft by taking 2 more closers. So I certainly support taking closers later in the draft, but the difference is I strongly support the need to get a closer who is stable and has a closer pedigree like a Papelbon or Rivera.

So back to Tony's questions on Valverde, etc... His questions were fluff because of the only question I needed to retaliated with was, "Where was Ryan Braun drafted last year?"

AND BINGO WAS HIS NAME.

You see if you want to take the argument that you can find diamonds in the rough for closing, that's a good strategy and a wise one. You must then also admit that you can find diamonds in the rough for hitting. Last year just to name a few rough diamonds Mike Lowell, Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips, and Curtis Granderson.

Then factor in this argument. This whole debate concerns a 5x5 rotisserie league right? So in a 5x5 rotisserie league there are 5 hitting and 5 pitching categories, so at least according to the general numbers its EVEN amongst the impact hitters and pitchers can have on your total score.

Add one more factor into he argument before we form a solution. The save category is a special one. It is the only category that a single specific player can score in. Only the closer can score a save making the closer a special player because no other player on your team scores in single category like a closer does.

So now we've all established that there are closers and hitters out there late in the draft or in free agency. We also established that in the 5x5 league pitchers are just as important as hitters and that closers carry special value with the saves category.

Then what is the issue here? How can you not look at that and say, "Maybe taking reliable proven closers early isn't so bad." But wait there is more. Let's assume you decide to wait, and as we all know when you get into the later rounds, the draft pick choices get slim. All of a sudden starting pitchers and closers seem to jump out at managers looking for a quick pck before their 60 seconds is up and they start vanishing. So if you though you would pick up 3-4 closers in the last 10 rounds think again, you'll be lucky to get 1.

Then consider free agency, will a big name closer develop? Most likely. Will you get said closer in free agency with your high noon draw in free agency, maybe.

So I guess what the Melnick supporters are saying is, "Let's gamble with our team and hope that not only does a dominating closer emerge, but we get him". Let's gamble by ignoring closers and hoping we can right that ship in free agency. LOL.

Sounds like experts to me! Almost like pitch and ditch, does an expert really do that constantly?

Alright, as most of you know I've been running an expert league this season. It is comprised of 12 experts from the industry including Lenny Melnick's partner Paul Greco. Let's examine an expert league and see how the experts have played the closer war.

Statistical evidence from the expert draft:

Number of expert who draft closers in the first 11 rounds: 12 ( 7 of them in the first 9 rounds)

Number of closers drafted in the first 11 rounds: 19

In this league so far the hottest commodity people are looking for in trades in April are CLOSERS. Guess which player is being traded the least and coveted by each team, closers.

So there you have it. the Melnick point of view can work in a perfect world, but in a league of experts where you won't always be the fastest in free agency or the smartest later in the draft its a rookie move and bad advice at best. Maybe Lenny Melnick plays in leagues where he is the far superior manager and can pull off moves like that. None ofthe leagues I play in would let me dominate in that way.

I firmly believe that the foundation of your team is your bullpen and it provides much more than saves. It shortens the big season-long roto match or even the H2H variety by giving you a huge advantage in saves. Great closers save your WHIP and ERA by throwing 10-20 inning's per week (depending on the size of your bullpen). They also add valuable strikeouts. Most closers get 1-2 per outing. Trust me, getting 10-15 strikeouts per week helps a ton in that category.

So take care of your closers because they are taking care of you.

The Closer Wars Heat Up: "Us Vs Them"

OK, The first salvos in this battle were fired much earlier in spring training. Now the war rages into the season over the value of a closer in a 5x5 Rotisserie League or any league type for that matter!

Is this mindless over exaggeration of one man's view on this controversy or is it a serious conflict needing to be resolved?

Well, after the first month of the season some of the supporters who comprise "Them" came out on Melnick & Greco's radio show last Wednesday (4/23/08). Lenny Melnick and his partner in crime Paul Greco agreed that not only should you not draft closers in the early rounds 1-6, but you should consider not drafting closers at all? They cited on their show that getting Todd Jones or Joe Borowski in the later rounds and getting good offense in the earlier rounds rather then closers was the better strategy. Even getting a closer like Sherill in free agency is better.

I got two questions for them

1. What if someone else grabs these "raindrop closers" from free agency before you do?

2. Is there no love for offense beyond round 7???

Well The True GURU (That's me) thinks they are spot on WRONG. This couldn't be worse advice and this type of strategy is a death blow to any fantasy team in a rotisserie 5x5 league.

No one could have predicted how closers would have performed to this point before the season started. IF and I say "IF" you were smart and drafted Franky Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Huston Street, or Bobby Jenks as opposed to waiting a little longer and getting Manny Corpas or Jose Valverde would you be better off? Or even waiting longer to get Hoffman, Borowski, or Jones?

Right now, I'd be doing great drafting closers in the early rounds. Being those closers mentioned above (not Corpas or Valverde) average nearly 8 saves each and .5 blown saves. Why has it got stuck in some experts heads and now the average fantasy baseball managers head that they should value offense over pitching and by a large margin in roto 5x5 leagues? The joke in itself is they both account for 5 categories so they should be even at the very least!

In my Humboldt, Nevada opinion, pitching carries just as much power as offense, and RPs or closers are the most important players on your team after 2-3 of your stud offensive players and/or STARTING ACES.

There is ONLY one category SAVES that can be scored by ONLY one type of player the CLOSER. Only relief pitchers can get saves, not Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, or Albert Pujols, just closers a.k.a RPs.

So, having a strong bullpen of the "Us" compared to the later drafted bullpen of the "Them" on the average should score big for the "Us" and will shorten the weekly or yearly match up to 9 categories and put your opponent in the hole to start 0-1. The significant here is in a head-to-head league where your opponent has to take 6 of 9 categories to win the week, while you only have to win 5 of 9. Numerically and statistically that is in your favor, and even in a standard roto league, if you can get a 10 score in saves, that's a huge advantage over the rest of the league.

Also, closers will throw 68-80 innings per year and will impact the other four pitching categories especially when the average starter goes about 175 innings. Maybe?

What about leagues with inning limits? I'd rather have the scoring power of 80 Closer inning's x 5 Closers then to have the scoring power of 5 SP's or mid-level offensive players x 5. Think about it in a league where points per inning mean the difference between winning and losing a championship.

So they will impact the other 4 categories, not wins as much, but without a doubt you are looking at per Closer: 50-80 strikeouts, 1.00-2.40 ERA, and a WHIP around .80-1.12. Yes, that will help quite a bit if you consider the big picture where up to 33% of your innings will come from your bullpen.

Now look at "Them". Say they draft those Closers later who maybe won't get as many saves, who will get cranked often like Jones, Borowski , Corpas, and find someone with less strikeouts. Well, you might have to assume they are at a disadvantage in this area of the team.

Wait a minute, they do have their reasons. "Them" claims getting better offense for the 2 picks you used in rounds 3-6 to get closers is a far superior strategy.

Wow, what about some of the offensive players and starting pitchers available after round 6 or even 7? Mmm lets open the imagination bubble and see who we can visualize...

Josh Willingham is looking good for a 17th round pick, Ellsbury is great for an 11th round pick. How about Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Chris Young, 30 home runs from Brad Hawpe, James Loney, Shane Victorino, Jason Bay, Mike Lowell, Josh Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, Edgar Renteria, Pat Burrell, Willy Taveras, Aaron Hill, Johnny Damon, Kosuke Fukudome , Placido Polanco, Evan Longoria, Orlando Hudson , Joey, Votto, bla bla bla.....

Finally, all the supporters of "Them" will argue "look how good Sherill, Lyon, Soria, B. Wilson, etc... are doing."

Yes, look at how they are doing. Say to yourself wow and pat yourself on the back. After you complete the celebration dance ponder this; Assume for a second that by waiting later in the draft to get closers that you may in fact not get the closers you wanted because other people grabbed them first? That happened to me in the expert league and I ended up with Corpas, Valverde, and Wood. So assume you may not get more then one of the above closers. Then ask yourself this question; Would you want to count on Brandon Lyon or Brain Wilson in September with the championship on the line? Who even knew they'd still be a closer let alone dependableat that time of the year!! Or would you rather have Rivera or KROD knowing you are in ALLSTATE (in good hands).

So the wrap up is, you can be with "Us" sitting pretty dominating saves and probably doing well in pitching and getting offensive stars later in the draft or you can be with "Them" and lose your league.

Guys, the bottomline is fantasy baseball and drafting is a thinking man's game. If you can't say to yourself that a top-notch closer carries the same value as a late 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th round draft pick, well maybe you should reconsider your strategy in order to win. The best experts get the players they have to have in the first 10 rounds of the draft, and then find the diamonds in the last 15 rounds. If the experts who support "Them" expect you to depend on their own advice on drafting closers, then they should know when to take closers over offense in the draft and what valuable offensive stars await them in the later rounds to make up for the offense lost to getting good closers . Only if they are truly "Experts" that is.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino

The True GURU releases his expert draft analysis and strategy

I finally finished my analysis of my 2008 expert draft for my team. Check out the link below. It will examine all 26 picks I made and explain why I made them at the time I did. Its a great piece to study if you want to understand how an expert drafts.

2008 Expert Draft Analysis And Strategy

First 7 Books completed, 3 more before the end of the season!

The first seven books of The Fantasy Baseball Bible have been released.  Look in early July for Books 8 and 9, and learn how to wrap up your championship season starting with the dog days of Summer!  Also watch for Book 10 around March 30th, as we begin formulating our greatest strategies into one book The Revelations of Fantasy Baseball Strategies. Its a MUST READ!  If you need an answer or need help is a spot you are not sure what to do, email us at thetrueguru@fantasybaseballsearch.com for help!